Deficit Impulse & Private Credit Growth
Real Fiscal Deficit Impulse
MTS - Cumulative Deficit Spending YoY Inflation Adj
Bear market (for shading): an SPX peak-to-recovery cycle where the drawdown from the prior peak to the cycle low is ≥ 25%, and the time from peak date until SPX exceeds that prior peak is ≥ 2 years. Shaded region spans Peak Date → Recovery Date (not Low Date → Recovery Date).
Private Credit Growth (YoY)
CRDQUSAPABIS - Credit to Private Non-Financial Sector from BIS (Billions USD, Quarterly)
Bear market (for shading): an SPX peak-to-recovery cycle where the drawdown from the prior peak to the cycle low is ≥ 25%, and the time from peak date until SPX exceeds that prior peak is ≥ 2 years. Shaded region spans Peak Date → Recovery Date.