Skip to content
09/27/2024 Market Update
Fiscal and bank-credit flows set against dealer hedging, dark-pool divergence, a dollar pushing lower, and TLT rejecting its 2023 level. GDP came in on expectations; next week's jobs data sets the tone for the Fed into 2025.
Members
09/20/2024 Market Update
A 50 basis point cut, a pop-drop-pop into new highs, a wage-inflation divergence surfacing in the payroll data, the September 16 tax drawdown, and the October 4 jobs report as the next tell on wages.
Members
09/12/2024 Market Update
The mid-July consolidation gets read against a 2019 analog, alongside the latest monthly Treasury statement, the seasonal tax-and-OpEx volatility window into October, and the hundred basis points of cuts the market has priced ahead of the FOMC.
Members
08/29/2024 Market Update
Sideways chop after the August selloff. The update takes up the late-summer spending surge and its shortfall against 2023, the widening gap between flows and price, and what the September tax drain sets up for October.
Members
07/26/2024 Market Update
Nearly 5% off the July 16th high. Covered here: the negative-gamma map beneath the tape, late-July fiscal flow seasonals, and what Wednesday's FOMC and Friday's jobs print mean for the September cut markets are pricing.
Members
07/18/2024 Market Update
Two days of heavier selling frame this session: sentiment stretched against flows, the post-expiration gamma setup, dark-pool participation, July's fiscal-flow low, and accelerating bank credit, with a data run into the July 31 FOMC.
Members
05/10/2024 Market Update
Volatility compression, the slow repair of April's tax-drain damage to structural flows, and a week ahead loaded with CPI and a Powell speech — the video update takes stock of each.
Members
04/25/2024 Market Update
A surprisingly weak GDP headline knocks the S&P toward 5000 before a midday recovery. The update takes the print apart — core growth ran 3.1% — and weighs what it means for the Fed's rate path and May's post-tax-season flows.
Members
01/24/2024 Market Update
A reversal off fresh all-time highs at the 4900 level sets the agenda: the gamma build there, the odds of a March hold from the Fed, the gradual recovery in bank credit, and sentiment heading into February.
Members