Modern Macro Technologies
15 August 2026 158 research notes Daily Treasury Statement releases 4:00 PM ET DTS 4:00 PM ET

Professional

The monetary plumbing,
read every evening.

At 4:00 PM ET the Treasury reports what actually settled. Professional is the desk that reads it — the decomposed statement, four models trained on it, and Douglas, the analyst who built them, in one place.

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What a day looks like

The statement lands at four. You read it by five.

Everything in Professional is organized around one cycle — the government's own reporting calendar. This is the routine you are buying into.

4:00 PM ET
The Daily Treasury Statement posts.

The prior day's actual settlements — not a survey, not an estimate. Our pipeline pulls it within the hour and decomposes it into the four readings that matter: TGA balance, withheld taxes, gross outlays, the settlement calendar.

Daily · T+1 · 350,000+ line items since 2013
By 5:00 PM
Seven views of the statement update.

Ninety-day flow averages against the S&P, fiscal-flow acceleration, monthly comparisons, the daily table, tax receipts, the seasonal heatmap, the year-over-year spending tracker. Every page states, series by series, exactly how fresh it is.

Overnight
The flow models retrain on the new inputs.

The dateline on every page names which statement the current signals were trained on. No silent restatements, no backfilled history.

Next morning
The model layer is current before the open.

Vol Shift classifies the coming session's magnitude. Flow Phase places today in its historical regime. DeepMMT sketches the six-month path implied by current flows.

Thursdays
The weekly signal re-pins.

AAII prints and Flow / Sentiment recomputes — deviation, momentum, trend — stamped for the week it applies to. A weekly signal is presented as weekly, never dressed up as daily.

Weekly
Office hours with Douglas.

Live, on the record, every week, with the analyst who built the models. Bring your positioning question — this is where you get to ask why.

What you get

Five data desks. Four models. One analyst.

Everything below is included at Professional — no per-seat metering, no usage caps.

Daily Treasury Statement

The full family: flows, acceleration, monthly comparison, daily table, tax receipts, heatmap, year tracker.

MTS Deficit Impulse

Accumulated deficit, CPI-adjusted, year over year, with recession shading. Back to 1974.

Margin Debt

FINRA debit balances — momentum and acceleration against trailing trend, paired with SPX. Back to 1996.

Interest Rates

Policy rate against the Treasury's average coupon — what refinancing the stock actually costs.

Gamma Exposure

Dealer gamma by strike and the profile across spot, with the zero-gamma flip level. SPX options, daily.

Vol Shift Live

Classifies the magnitude of the next session's move from the variance risk premium, dealer positioning, contango, and the VIX term structure.

Flow Phase Live

Three-phase classifier in the Minsky tradition — distress, neutral, expansion. Fitted walk-forward; never sees the period it is scored on.

Flow / Sentiment Live

Divergences between Treasury cash flows and investor sentiment: deviation, momentum, trend.

DeepMMT Live

Deep-learning regression over ~45 engineered flow features, sketching the S&P's forward path. Read as a shape, not a target.

DeepMinsky In development

The multi-sector simulation: stock-flow consistent, credit cycles emerging endogenously. Whitepaper available on request.

The series behind it

Maintained, not scraped on demand.

Every model on this page is fed by series we clean, align, and keep current ourselves. This is the part that takes years, and it is the part you cannot rebuild over a weekend.

Daily Treasury Statementdaily · T+1since 2013350,000+ line items
Monthly Treasury Statementmonthlysince 1974full fiscal decomposition
Margin debt · FINRAmonthlysince 1996member-firm statistics
Investor sentiment · AAIIweeklysince 19872,000+ survey weeks
Markets & ratesdailysince 2001S&P closes, vol surface, policy rates

All of it is public source — Treasury, FRED, FINRA, AAII, CBOE. The edge is not the feed; it is the reading, done every day, inside one consistent framework.

Fit

Who this is for.

At $1,299 a month, it is worth being direct about who gets their money's worth.

Built for

  • Advisors and allocators who need a macro process they can defend to a client or a committee
  • Full-time traders positioning around fiscal flows, issuance, and volatility regimes
  • Family-office and small-fund analysts who want the underlying series, not a summary of them
  • Anyone who would otherwise build this data pipeline themselves

Not built for

  • Stock picks, price targets, or trade alerts — we publish mechanisms, not tickets
  • Anyone wanting a political argument about deficits; the framework is descriptive
  • Passive investors who check in quarterly — the value is in the daily read
  • Anyone expecting a track record; we publish research, not performance claims
25 years ago I would have been looking to work for you!
Warren Mosler
Co-Founder, III Capital Management

Try it against two full signal cycles.

Fourteen days of complete access — every dashboard, every model, the research archive, and the next two office hours sessions with Douglas. We remind you two days before it ends.

Annual · $12,990 — two months free

$1,299 /mo
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Questions

Before you start.

How is this different from the Individual tier?

Individual is the narrative — the newsletter, the archive, the community. Professional is the numbers: every dashboard, the full model layer, same-day research, and weekly office hours with Douglas. Different product, not a bigger version of the same one.

Is this investment advice?

No. Modern Macro Technologies publishes independent research for informational purposes. Model output is labelled model output. What you do with it is your decision.

Do you publish a track record?

No — deliberately. What we publish instead is the validation discipline: no series feeds a model until it demonstrates real information content against noise controls and forecast value under Granger causality, and classifiers are fitted walk-forward so they never see the period they are scored on. Ask us about it in office hours.

Can I expense this?

Yes. Receipts and invoices are available from your account page. For multi-seat licensing, data exports, or API access, that is the Institutional tier — talk to us.

What happens when the trial ends?

You are charged $1,299 unless you cancel, and we email you two days beforehand. Cancel any time from your account page — no call, no retention flow.

I already subscribe to AppliedMMT.

Your price and access do not change. If you want the dashboards and the model layer, upgrade from your account page and keep everything you already have.

Understand the flows that drive the economy.