Professional
The monetary plumbing,
read every evening.
At 4:00 PM ET the Treasury reports what actually settled. Professional is the desk that reads it — the decomposed statement, four models trained on it, and Douglas, the analyst who built them, in one place.
What a day looks like
The statement lands at four. You read it by five.
Everything in Professional is organized around one cycle — the government's own reporting calendar. This is the routine you are buying into.
The prior day's actual settlements — not a survey, not an estimate. Our pipeline pulls it within the hour and decomposes it into the four readings that matter: TGA balance, withheld taxes, gross outlays, the settlement calendar.
Daily · T+1 · 350,000+ line items since 2013Ninety-day flow averages against the S&P, fiscal-flow acceleration, monthly comparisons, the daily table, tax receipts, the seasonal heatmap, the year-over-year spending tracker. Every page states, series by series, exactly how fresh it is.
The dateline on every page names which statement the current signals were trained on. No silent restatements, no backfilled history.
Vol Shift classifies the coming session's magnitude. Flow Phase places today in its historical regime. DeepMMT sketches the six-month path implied by current flows.
AAII prints and Flow / Sentiment recomputes — deviation, momentum, trend — stamped for the week it applies to. A weekly signal is presented as weekly, never dressed up as daily.
Live, on the record, every week, with the analyst who built the models. Bring your positioning question — this is where you get to ask why.
What you get
Five data desks. Four models. One analyst.
Everything below is included at Professional — no per-seat metering, no usage caps.
Daily Treasury Statement
The full family: flows, acceleration, monthly comparison, daily table, tax receipts, heatmap, year tracker.
MTS Deficit Impulse
Accumulated deficit, CPI-adjusted, year over year, with recession shading. Back to 1974.
Margin Debt
FINRA debit balances — momentum and acceleration against trailing trend, paired with SPX. Back to 1996.
Interest Rates
Policy rate against the Treasury's average coupon — what refinancing the stock actually costs.
Gamma Exposure
Dealer gamma by strike and the profile across spot, with the zero-gamma flip level. SPX options, daily.
Vol Shift Live
Classifies the magnitude of the next session's move from the variance risk premium, dealer positioning, contango, and the VIX term structure.
Flow Phase Live
Three-phase classifier in the Minsky tradition — distress, neutral, expansion. Fitted walk-forward; never sees the period it is scored on.
Flow / Sentiment Live
Divergences between Treasury cash flows and investor sentiment: deviation, momentum, trend.
DeepMMT Live
Deep-learning regression over ~45 engineered flow features, sketching the S&P's forward path. Read as a shape, not a target.
DeepMinsky In development
The multi-sector simulation: stock-flow consistent, credit cycles emerging endogenously. Whitepaper available on request.
The series behind it
Maintained, not scraped on demand.
Every model on this page is fed by series we clean, align, and keep current ourselves. This is the part that takes years, and it is the part you cannot rebuild over a weekend.
All of it is public source — Treasury, FRED, FINRA, AAII, CBOE. The edge is not the feed; it is the reading, done every day, inside one consistent framework.
Fit
Who this is for.
At $1,299 a month, it is worth being direct about who gets their money's worth.
Built for
- Advisors and allocators who need a macro process they can defend to a client or a committee
- Full-time traders positioning around fiscal flows, issuance, and volatility regimes
- Family-office and small-fund analysts who want the underlying series, not a summary of them
- Anyone who would otherwise build this data pipeline themselves
Not built for
- Stock picks, price targets, or trade alerts — we publish mechanisms, not tickets
- Anyone wanting a political argument about deficits; the framework is descriptive
- Passive investors who check in quarterly — the value is in the daily read
- Anyone expecting a track record; we publish research, not performance claims
25 years ago I would have been looking to work for you!
Try it against two full signal cycles.
Fourteen days of complete access — every dashboard, every model, the research archive, and the next two office hours sessions with Douglas. We remind you two days before it ends.
Annual · $12,990 — two months free
Questions
Before you start.
How is this different from the Individual tier?
Individual is the narrative — the newsletter, the archive, the community. Professional is the numbers: every dashboard, the full model layer, same-day research, and weekly office hours with Douglas. Different product, not a bigger version of the same one.
Is this investment advice?
No. Modern Macro Technologies publishes independent research for informational purposes. Model output is labelled model output. What you do with it is your decision.
Do you publish a track record?
No — deliberately. What we publish instead is the validation discipline: no series feeds a model until it demonstrates real information content against noise controls and forecast value under Granger causality, and classifiers are fitted walk-forward so they never see the period they are scored on. Ask us about it in office hours.
Can I expense this?
Yes. Receipts and invoices are available from your account page. For multi-seat licensing, data exports, or API access, that is the Institutional tier — talk to us.
What happens when the trial ends?
You are charged $1,299 unless you cancel, and we email you two days beforehand. Cancel any time from your account page — no call, no retention flow.
I already subscribe to AppliedMMT.
Your price and access do not change. If you want the dashboards and the model layer, upgrade from your account page and keep everything you already have.
Understand the flows that drive the economy.