The archive

Sep 16

09/16/2026 Market Update: The Fed Hiked. Here's Why It Feeds the Cycle Instead of Ending It.

Market Update Preview Fed Day delivered a hike. Heading in, this was probably the most uncertain rate decision we've had in many years — exactly Members Sep 14

Macro Update: The cycle is intact, the model is long, and for the next few weeks we are hedging it with cash

Professional Sep 7

09/07/2026 Market Update: The September Surprise — Flows Just Changed the Setup

Market Update Preview For the past four or five weeks, the drive-home point here has been sideways action: the big early-August run played out most of Members Sep 1

The Only Way Treasury Gets Lower Rates Without the Fed

Bessent wants lower long-term rates without the Fed. The TGA build, the doubled buybacks -- none of it will work, and the one fiscal lever that does is the one nobody in this administration will name. Free Aug 27

08/27/2026 Market Update: The Bessent Buyback Mirage, and Why Mid-September Is the Brittle Zone

The Bessent buyback treated as a mirage: the TGA mechanics, the one lever that would actually bring rates down, and why nobody in Washington will pull it. Also flagged — a mid-September brittle zone, and a rare disagreement with DeepMMT. Members Aug 26

Addressing the WSJ's Latest MMT Hit Piece

The WSJ blames MMT for the pandemic inflation. Their tax arithmetic is right, their description of MMT isn't, and their causal chain runs backwards. Free Aug 18

08/18/2026 Market Update: Introducing the Flow Monitor, and Why September Is the Date I'm Circling

The Flow Monitor debuts: fiscal flows, credit, and the lag structure condensed into one visual that asks whether the market is priced to the dollars already created. Also: new highs, the case that overpriced alone doesn't break a market, and a circled September window. Members Aug 14

Two Centuries of Warning About the National Debt

A chronological gallery of 240 years of debt-doom warnings as they were actually printed and broadcast — every quotation verified against primary sources, placed on the debt curve itself. Free Aug 9

08/09/2026 Market Update: The Rally Delivered. Now Comes the Harder Question.

A run to nearly 7,800 out of the gate in August shifts the question from whether the rally holds to when it gets dangerous; also here, a years-long split between credit creation and tax receipts, and why a too-calm VIX is its own warning. Members Jul 30

07/30/2026 Market Update: The Inflection Point, Reading the New Fed, and Why You Can't Front-Run Flows

A 1,000-point Dow drop after Warsh's press conference, mostly recovered a session later. Two FOMC meetings into the new Fed, the update reads the market's response function, a July 24 shift in the flow picture, and why no one seems to front-run flows. Members Jul 19

07/19/2026 Market Update

Oil back above $80, the semiconductor index off more than 20%, and bearish calls stacking up. The bear case gets steelmanned — chart pattern, sentiment, dark-pool divergence — then taken apart with the fiscal re-acceleration driving flows this late in the cycle. Members Jul 12

07/12/2026 Market Update

Iran tensions nudge oil higher while the S&P sits in its consolidation. The bigger story is fiscal: flows are re-accelerating, the mid-July low is bottoming above April's, and a rates breakout is brewing in the background. Members