The archive

Nov 1

11/01/2026 Market Update: Beginning of the End, or the Pause Every Bull Run Needs?

Market Update Preview This is probably one of the more important updates of the year, because of how the week finished. Thursday and Friday were very Members Oct 25

10/25/2026 Market Update: Support Is Holding, the Fed Is Wednesday, and Why Gold Beats Bonds as a Hedge

Market Update Preview The call has been consolidation before a run-up into November, with core support around 7,600. This past week got pretty darn Members Oct 22

October Macro Update: portfolio positioning and inflationary risks on the horizon

Professional Oct 15

10/15/2026 Market Update: The Ceiling Held. Inflation Surprised. Here's What Changes and What Doesn't.

Market Update Preview Last week the argument was simple: we're overpriced relative to flows (not the biggest concern on its own), the Flow Monitor Members Oct 7

10/07/2026 Market Update: New Highs and What's going on with Gold

Market Update Preview Going back to mid-September — once the dust settled from the FOMC decision — we've been structurally bullish, and that's Members Sep 25

09/25/2026 Market Update: Stocks Digested the Hike. Bonds Didn't. Here's What the Bond Market Just Figured Out.

Market Update Preview It's been a week and a half since the Fed hike, and equities have had plenty of time to digest it Members Sep 22

AlphaShift Note - 9/22/2026

Professional Sep 16

09/16/2026 Market Update: The Fed Hiked. Here's Why It Feeds the Cycle Instead of Ending It.

Market Update Preview Fed Day delivered a hike. Heading in, this was probably the most uncertain rate decision we've had in many years — exactly Members Sep 14

Macro Update: The cycle is intact, the model is long, and for the next few weeks we are hedging it with cash

Professional Sep 7

09/07/2026 Market Update: The September Surprise — Flows Just Changed the Setup

Market Update Preview For the past four or five weeks, the drive-home point here has been sideways action: the big early-August run played out Members Sep 1

The Only Way Treasury Gets Lower Rates Without the Fed

Bessent wants lower long-term rates without the Fed. The TGA build, the doubled buybacks -- none of it will work, and the one fiscal lever that does is the one nobody in this administration will name. Free Aug 27

08/27/2026 Market Update: The Bessent Buyback Mirage, and Why Mid-September Is the Brittle Zone

The Bessent buyback treated as a mirage: the TGA mechanics, the one lever that would actually bring rates down, and why nobody in Washington will pull it. Also flagged — a mid-September brittle zone, and a rare disagreement with DeepMMT. Members