The archive

Jul 12

07/12/2026 Market Update

Iran tensions nudge oil higher while the S&P sits in its consolidation. The bigger story is fiscal: flows are re-accelerating, the mid-July low is bottoming above April's, and a rates breakout is brewing in the background. Members Jul 3

07/03/2026 Market Update

A 57k jobs print against 129k expected shook markets for a day and changed nothing: flows are re-accelerating into July. The centerpiece is a dollar deep dive on how currency moves change a US portfolio's return against a hedged international one. Members Jun 26

06/26/2026 Market Update

Volatility returns and tech high-fliers take the hit, but the data doesn't support the doomsday read: margin-debt acceleration dipped, fiscal is still strong, and credit is recovering from the Iran-related profit hit. A June tax-drain breather, not a bubble bursting. Members Jun 18

06/18/2026 Market Update

Kevin Warsh ran his first FOMC: a pared-down statement, a hawkish dot plot, and a chair who wants markets guessing. The update argues a rate hike would actually add fiscal support through interest income, and walks the credit-cycle math. Members Jun 8

06/08/2026 Market Update

A hot jobs print dashes the last argument for rate cuts: the Nasdaq drops nearly 5%, yields jump, and the S&P lands on the 7300 zone. With CPI consensus at 4.2% and margin debt accelerating, the case that this still is not the end of the cycle. Members May 27

05/27/2026 Market Update

Oil cools below $100, the real deficit impulse keeps grinding toward zero, and bank credit re-accelerates after its post-Iran dive — plus a scenario where the new Fed chair holding rates flat is what tips the cycle into recession. Members May 12

05/12/2026 Market Update

April CPI printed 3.8% and beat expectations — in this framework, the marker that late-cycle price hikes are finally working through the system. Oil, the Iran shock, and tariff residue point to a hot inflation summer even as the real deficit impulse deteriorates. Members May 2

05/02/2026 Market Update

The new dashboard goes live, and a chart found while building it: a divergence between price returns and margin debt growth that has shown up only twice in 50 years — both times ahead of a major recession. Members Apr 23

04/23/2026 Market Update

Markets consolidate near 7,100 after clearing 7,000. The longer discussion is theoretical: liquidity crises can rattle asset prices without breaking the system, and the update walks through what actually does. Plus the deficit impulse and Powell's likely final FOMC. Members Apr 20

Private Credit Isn't 2008: Why the Headlines Are Missing the Balance Sheet

Private credit stress is real, but it is not 2008. On the balance sheet, a private credit deal shuffles existing deposits and stacks claims on them; bank credit creates new money — and that one distinction contains the damage. Free Apr 15

04/15/2026 Market Update

From panic lows to fresh highs in a hurry. The update traces the flow acceleration behind the snapback, the tariff-refund liquidity that could follow, and why end-of-cycle risk is worth watching but not yet fearing. Members Apr 7

04/07/2026 Market Update

The ceasefire with Iran gave markets the catalyst they had been waiting on, and equities responded all at once. The data was already close to a proper turn; the update makes the case this begins the next leg higher. Members