Update Preview
Volatility is back. Some tech high-fliers are getting hit hard, fear is creeping into the headlines, and a lot of people are reading this as the start of something much bigger. I don't think it is.
This sell-off is unfolding almost exactly as we anticipated heading into the June tax drain — a necessary breather after a long run, not a bubble bursting. The data simply doesn't support the doomsday read: margin debt acceleration actually dipped, fiscal is still too strong, and credit is recovering right on schedule from the Iran-related profit hit. What I'm watching for now is the mirror image of what we saw in May — instead of overbought into weak flows, I want to see oversold into accelerating July flows. That's the setup that defines the buying opportunity.
I'll lay out the levels I'm watching, the specific volatility signals that would confirm a bottom, why the sentiment surveys left a lot of people on the wrong side of this trade, and how I'm thinking about the eventual cycle turn into 2027 — including the historical analog I think fits best. Full breakdown below.
(Note: Below is a summary of the Market Update Video for 06/26/2026, click here to watch the video update)