Market Update Preview
Two things this week. First, some housekeeping — Modern Macro Tech and AppliedMMT are now one brand on one site, with everything continuing exactly as it has.
Second, and more importantly, I'm unveiling a new tool that I've been building for weeks: the Flow Monitor. It takes everything we analyze here — fiscal flows, credit, the lag structure, the credit cycle danger zones — and condenses it into a single visual that answers one question: is this market properly priced relative to the dollars that have actually been created? It came out of a conceptual reframe that sounds like a restatement but genuinely changes how you look at the problem, and when I backtested it, it flagged every major sell-off going back to 2007 with one instructive exception.
On markets: we made new highs Friday and have drifted since. We're overpriced — but I explain why overpriced alone doesn't break a market, and what specifically has to stack up alongside it before things get dangerous. I'm now circling a specific window where I think this market gives something back. And on the longer-term picture, there's one chart that just did something I'd call the first genuine crack in the endogenous side of this cycle. Full breakdown below.
(Note: Below is a summary of the Market Update Video for 08/18/2026, click here to watch the video update)