The archive

Apr 3

What DeepMinsky Says About the Oil Shock: A Market Simulation

With WTI near $113 and the S&P up 4% off its Friday lows, a DeepMinsky system-dynamics run holds oil above $100 and traces the fallout: roughly 1 to 3 points of extra inflation over the coming year, slower growth, and a market that may not break. Free Mar 29

03/29/2026 Market Update

Heavy selling finally resolves the mismatch between price and flows. The update weighs whether this is the final shakeout before another leg higher or the start of something more serious, and names the signals to watch before calling a buying opportunity. Members Mar 28

Is This the Start of a Bear Market—or Just a Necessary Reset?

Oil's 50% spike is the anxiety, but the MMT arithmetic says the system doesn't strain until inflation nears 6% — which would take crude above $200. At today's 2.5% CPI, this reads as a stretched market resetting, not a cycle ending. Free Mar 23

03/23/2026 Market Update

A Truth Social post on a five-day Iran hiatus sent the S&P up 2% and oil down nearly 10% before most of the move faded. The update weighs the oil risk premium, rising rate expectations, and the tax-drain window against that headline. Members Mar 16

03/16/2026 Market Update

The volatility regime that began in October keeps working itself out. Oil is the swing factor: two weeks past the initial break it has not reset, and elevated crude eats into the real value of fiscal support. Members Mar 4

03/04/2026 Market Update

Equities round-tripped the Iran headlines back to Friday's close; oil didn't, holding roughly 15% higher. The update works through what that gap means for flows, the inflation setup, and the March seasonality window. Members Feb 25

Supreme Court Strikes Down the IEEPA Tariffs — But Markets May Be Staring at Something Worse

The Supreme Court rules the IEEPA tariffs illegal; within hours Trump floats a global 10% tariff, then 15%. Tariffs function as a tax on private-sector balance sheets — which is why the replacement may prove worse than what the Court struck down. Free Feb 22

02/22/2026 Market Update

The Supreme Court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs; a 15% global tariff under Section 122 follows almost immediately. On the refund arithmetic, the fiscal headwind if tariffs re-accelerate, and how futures digested a messy weekend. Members Feb 20

Are We Finally Breaking Out — Or Setting Up for One More Leg Lower?

Five months of sideways market — the S&P up barely 1–1.5%, the Nasdaq slightly down — examined through a three-model flow-sentiment ensemble. The readings say the market hasn't truly reset, leaving one more leg lower on the table. Free Feb 15

CPI Cools… But the Inflation Trade Isn’t Dead

The January print came in below consensus at 2.4%, yet the assets that win in inflationary regimes keep winning: ex-US equities, materials, gold, a falling dollar. In this causal chain, CPI is the expansion's final stage, not its first. Free Feb 13

02/13/2026 Market Update

CPI comes in cooler than consensus even as materials, value, small caps, and gold trade like inflation winners; also inside: the flow-sentiment toolset, dealer hedging, dark pools, and DeepMMT's current read. Members Feb 6

02/06/2026 Market Update

Bitcoin fell roughly 15%, then regained 12% the next day; the S&P swung with it. The update reads the whipsaw against the price-ahead-of-flows regime and the tax-season flow acceleration window. Members