The archive

Mar 16

03/16/2026 Market Update

The volatility regime that began in October keeps working itself out. Oil is the swing factor: two weeks past the initial break it has not reset, and elevated crude eats into the real value of fiscal support. Members Mar 4

03/04/2026 Market Update

Equities round-tripped the Iran headlines back to Friday's close; oil didn't, holding roughly 15% higher. The update works through what that gap means for flows, the inflation setup, and the March seasonality window. Members Feb 25

Supreme Court Strikes Down the IEEPA Tariffs — But Markets May Be Staring at Something Worse

The Supreme Court rules the IEEPA tariffs illegal; within hours Trump floats a global 10% tariff, then 15%. Tariffs function as a tax on private-sector balance sheets — which is why the replacement may prove worse than what the Court struck down. Free Feb 22

02/22/2026 Market Update

The Supreme Court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs; a 15% global tariff under Section 122 follows almost immediately. On the refund arithmetic, the fiscal headwind if tariffs re-accelerate, and how futures digested a messy weekend. Members Feb 20

Are We Finally Breaking Out — Or Setting Up for One More Leg Lower?

Five months of sideways market — the S&P up barely 1–1.5%, the Nasdaq slightly down — examined through a three-model flow-sentiment ensemble. The readings say the market hasn't truly reset, leaving one more leg lower on the table. Free Feb 15

CPI Cools… But the Inflation Trade Isn’t Dead

The January print came in below consensus at 2.4%, yet the assets that win in inflationary regimes keep winning: ex-US equities, materials, gold, a falling dollar. In this causal chain, CPI is the expansion's final stage, not its first. Free Feb 13

02/13/2026 Market Update

CPI comes in cooler than consensus even as materials, value, small caps, and gold trade like inflation winners; also inside: the flow-sentiment toolset, dealer hedging, dark pools, and DeepMMT's current read. Members Feb 6

02/06/2026 Market Update

Bitcoin fell roughly 15%, then regained 12% the next day; the S&P swung with it. The update reads the whipsaw against the price-ahead-of-flows regime and the tax-season flow acceleration window. Members Jan 29

01/29/2026 Market Update

Tech earnings put volatility back in the tape. Inside: the trade balance as the tariff bullwhip fades, renewed shutdown risk, gold and dollar dynamics, and what decelerating fiscal beside accelerating credit says about where the cycle stands. Members Jan 21

01/21/2026 Market Update

Volatility arrives: a roughly 2% S&P selloff, a VIX push above its upper Bollinger band, and a January tax drain that left flows at their weakest since 2023. Also covered: Japan carry-trade stress and the bonds-up, dollar-down decoupling. Members Jan 8

01/08/2026 Market Update

A follow-up on business-cycle mechanics: fiscal adds the base, credit expands on top, and two automatic de-stabilizers — inflation and taxes — eventually slow the machine. Plus the SCOTUS tariff decision and the January volatility window. Members Dec 30

12/30/2025 Market Update

Part data, part narrative: the GDP beat's trade-math mechanics, the sliding dollar, gold and silver's late-cycle run, and inflation moving toward center stage as 2026 arrives. Members