The archive

May 12

05/12/2026 Market Update

April CPI printed 3.8% and beat expectations — in this framework, the marker that late-cycle price hikes are finally working through the system. Oil, the Iran shock, and tariff residue point to a hot inflation summer even as the real deficit impulse deteriorates. Members May 2

05/02/2026 Market Update

The new dashboard goes live, and a chart found while building it: a divergence between price returns and margin debt growth that has shown up only twice in 50 years — both times ahead of a major recession. Members Apr 23

04/23/2026 Market Update

Markets consolidate near 7,100 after clearing 7,000. The longer discussion is theoretical: liquidity crises can rattle asset prices without breaking the system, and the update walks through what actually does. Plus the deficit impulse and Powell's likely final FOMC. Members Apr 20

Private Credit Isn't 2008: Why the Headlines Are Missing the Balance Sheet

Private credit stress is real, but it is not 2008. On the balance sheet, a private credit deal shuffles existing deposits and stacks claims on them; bank credit creates new money — and that one distinction contains the damage. Free Apr 15

04/15/2026 Market Update

From panic lows to fresh highs in a hurry. The update traces the flow acceleration behind the snapback, the tariff-refund liquidity that could follow, and why end-of-cycle risk is worth watching but not yet fearing. Members Apr 7

04/07/2026 Market Update

The ceasefire with Iran gave markets the catalyst they had been waiting on, and equities responded all at once. The data was already close to a proper turn; the update makes the case this begins the next leg higher. Members Apr 3

What DeepMinsky Says About the Oil Shock: A Market Simulation

With WTI near $113 and the S&P up 4% off its Friday lows, a DeepMinsky system-dynamics run holds oil above $100 and traces the fallout: roughly 1 to 3 points of extra inflation over the coming year, slower growth, and a market that may not break. Free Mar 29

03/29/2026 Market Update

Heavy selling finally resolves the mismatch between price and flows. The update weighs whether this is the final shakeout before another leg higher or the start of something more serious, and names the signals to watch before calling a buying opportunity. Members Mar 28

Is This the Start of a Bear Market—or Just a Necessary Reset?

Oil's 50% spike is the anxiety, but the MMT arithmetic says the system doesn't strain until inflation nears 6% — which would take crude above $200. At today's 2.5% CPI, this reads as a stretched market resetting, not a cycle ending. Free Mar 23

03/23/2026 Market Update

A Truth Social post on a five-day Iran hiatus sent the S&P up 2% and oil down nearly 10% before most of the move faded. The update weighs the oil risk premium, rising rate expectations, and the tax-drain window against that headline. Members Mar 16

03/16/2026 Market Update

The volatility regime that began in October keeps working itself out. Oil is the swing factor: two weeks past the initial break it has not reset, and elevated crude eats into the real value of fiscal support. Members Mar 4

03/04/2026 Market Update

Equities round-tripped the Iran headlines back to Friday's close; oil didn't, holding roughly 15% higher. The update works through what that gap means for flows, the inflation setup, and the March seasonality window. Members