The archive

Dec 17

12/17/2025 Market Update

Two-plus months of sideways price meet the December tax drain: the 90-day flow average peaked near $9B a day against $10.1B last December. The update covers the vol shift model's early warnings, deteriorating dealer hedging, and a CPI-and-speeches week ahead. Members Dec 8

12/08/2025 Market Update

A quiet tape into a Fed cut that's all but priced. Covered here: the year-end flow lift against a decelerating fiscal trend, the interest-income mechanics of a cutting cycle, and a tariff-refund wildcard worth $200-250 billion to the private sector. Members Nov 29

11/29/2025 Market Update

Flows never re-accelerated after the September tax drain, and the snapback gets measured against that fact — alongside a coming Fed cut read through the rate-income lens, and what a tariff overturn or refund would hand back to the private sector. Members Nov 18

11/18/2025 Market Update

Follow-through selling at last, with every bounce meeting heavier supply. Under review: the fading fiscal impulse against shutdown and tariff drags, dealer positioning and dark pools, a still-accelerating credit engine, and both models' updated readings. Members Nov 13

11/12/2025 Market Update

The government reopens without an October jobs report or CPI, and oral arguments move the odds on the tariff case — a $20-30B monthly swing for private income even without refunds. Also here: a one-week deceleration in bank credit and the dark-pool divergence. Members Nov 2

11/02/2025 Market Update

An anatomy of gold's run — interest income, the dollar's global role, the tariff regime — then equities near highs as fiscal flows slow, passive's nonlinear bid, still-accelerating bank credit, and the SCOTUS tariff case as the binary that matters. Members Oct 23

10/23/2025 Market Update

Markets have clawed back most of the early-October drop. At issue: whether flows have reset after the tax drain and shutdown, the Fed's answer on reserve tightness, margin debt, and the tariff case before the Supreme Court. Members Oct 16

10/16/2025 Market Update

A tariff headline, a volatility spike, a near-full retrace — and a funding market still tight, with the SOFR-RRP spread wide and the SRF tapped. The update maps the shutdown's fiscal drag and November's Supreme Court tariff case. Members Oct 8

10/08/2025 Market Update

An inventory of stress signals with the S&P grinding near 6,800: a rare positive VIX-SPX correlation, widening SOFR-RRP funding spreads, dark-pool divergence, dealer positioning overhead, a firming dollar, and lagging tax receipts. Members Oct 2

Market Rally Meets Resistance: Why October Could Get Dicey

The September corporate tax drain pulled roughly $120 billion from the private sector in two weeks, reverse repo is effectively drained, and a shutdown looms over tight reserves. The case for a volatile October, mechanism by mechanism. Free Sep 30

09/30/2025 Market Update

Shutdown risk, a widening SOFR–RRP funding spread, and a roughly $120B September corporate tax drain all land as October's fragile seasonal window opens — with November's Supreme Court tariff ruling waiting behind it. Members Sep 24

09/24/2025 Market Update

Back-to-back down days end weeks of volatility compression just as the corporate tax window pulls roughly $100B from the system. The update walks through the flow and sentiment tools, dark pool divergence, DeepMMT's path, and the credit-versus-fiscal ledger. Members