The archive

Jan 29

01/29/2026 Market Update

Tech earnings put volatility back in the tape. Inside: the trade balance as the tariff bullwhip fades, renewed shutdown risk, gold and dollar dynamics, and what decelerating fiscal beside accelerating credit says about where the cycle stands. Members Jan 21

01/21/2026 Market Update

Volatility arrives: a roughly 2% S&P selloff, a VIX push above its upper Bollinger band, and a January tax drain that left flows at their weakest since 2023. Also covered: Japan carry-trade stress and the bonds-up, dollar-down decoupling. Members Jan 8

01/08/2026 Market Update

A follow-up on business-cycle mechanics: fiscal adds the base, credit expands on top, and two automatic de-stabilizers — inflation and taxes — eventually slow the machine. Plus the SCOTUS tariff decision and the January volatility window. Members Dec 30

12/30/2025 Market Update

Part data, part narrative: the GDP beat's trade-math mechanics, the sliding dollar, gold and silver's late-cycle run, and inflation moving toward center stage as 2026 arrives. Members Dec 17

12/17/2025 Market Update

Two-plus months of sideways price meet the December tax drain: the 90-day flow average peaked near $9B a day against $10.1B last December. The update covers the vol shift model's early warnings, deteriorating dealer hedging, and a CPI-and-speeches week ahead. Members Dec 8

12/08/2025 Market Update

A quiet tape into a Fed cut that's all but priced. Covered here: the year-end flow lift against a decelerating fiscal trend, the interest-income mechanics of a cutting cycle, and a tariff-refund wildcard worth $200-250 billion to the private sector. Members Nov 29

11/29/2025 Market Update

Flows never re-accelerated after the September tax drain, and the snapback gets measured against that fact — alongside a coming Fed cut read through the rate-income lens, and what a tariff overturn or refund would hand back to the private sector. Members Nov 18

11/18/2025 Market Update

Follow-through selling at last, with every bounce meeting heavier supply. Under review: the fading fiscal impulse against shutdown and tariff drags, dealer positioning and dark pools, a still-accelerating credit engine, and both models' updated readings. Members Nov 13

11/12/2025 Market Update

The government reopens without an October jobs report or CPI, and oral arguments move the odds on the tariff case — a $20-30B monthly swing for private income even without refunds. Also here: a one-week deceleration in bank credit and the dark-pool divergence. Members Nov 2

11/02/2025 Market Update

An anatomy of gold's run — interest income, the dollar's global role, the tariff regime — then equities near highs as fiscal flows slow, passive's nonlinear bid, still-accelerating bank credit, and the SCOTUS tariff case as the binary that matters. Members Oct 23

10/23/2025 Market Update

Markets have clawed back most of the early-October drop. At issue: whether flows have reset after the tax drain and shutdown, the Fed's answer on reserve tightness, margin debt, and the tariff case before the Supreme Court. Members Oct 16

10/16/2025 Market Update

A tariff headline, a volatility spike, a near-full retrace — and a funding market still tight, with the SOFR-RRP spread wide and the SRF tapped. The update maps the shutdown's fiscal drag and November's Supreme Court tariff case. Members