The archive

Oct 8

10/08/2025 Market Update

An inventory of stress signals with the S&P grinding near 6,800: a rare positive VIX-SPX correlation, widening SOFR-RRP funding spreads, dark-pool divergence, dealer positioning overhead, a firming dollar, and lagging tax receipts. Members Oct 2

Market Rally Meets Resistance: Why October Could Get Dicey

The September corporate tax drain pulled roughly $120 billion from the private sector in two weeks, reverse repo is effectively drained, and a shutdown looms over tight reserves. The case for a volatile October, mechanism by mechanism. Free Sep 30

09/30/2025 Market Update

Shutdown risk, a widening SOFR–RRP funding spread, and a roughly $120B September corporate tax drain all land as October's fragile seasonal window opens — with November's Supreme Court tariff ruling waiting behind it. Members Sep 24

09/24/2025 Market Update

Back-to-back down days end weeks of volatility compression just as the corporate tax window pulls roughly $100B from the system. The update walks through the flow and sentiment tools, dark pool divergence, DeepMMT's path, and the credit-versus-fiscal ledger. Members Sep 17

What Really Drives the Price of Bitcoin? Debunking the Liquidity Myth

The Fed-liquidity story for Bitcoin doesn't survive contact with the data: QE swaps assets rather than creating them, fiscal flows do the creating, and price follows them with a roughly ten-month lag. Free Sep 15

09/15/2025 Market Update

Introduces Fiscal Flow Acceleration, a new tool built on the Daily Treasury Statement, then turns to September seasonality, the corporate tax drain, Wednesday's Fed decision, and the Supreme Court tariff case with a $150B refund riding on it. Members Sep 9

Jobs Data, Supply Shocks, and Where We Really Are in the Cycle

Payrolls land at 22,000 against a 75,000 expectation. The case that this is a post-supply-shock hiring pause, not a cycle rolling over: credit drawdown is accelerating, inflation is falling, and layoffs are not spiking. Free Sep 8

09/08/2025 Market Update

One of the weakest payrolls prints in years, the Supreme Court tariff case and its potential $150 billion-plus refund, gold's surge, a sagging dollar, and emerging markets — with CPI due Thursday. Members Sep 1

09/01/2025 Market Update

A Labor Day read on a compressed tape: the appeals-court tariff ruling now headed toward the Supreme Court, fiscal's role in the credit cycle, VIX at its lowest since late 2024, and the September corporate tax drain ahead. Members Aug 25

08/25/2025 Market Update

After Powell signaled cuts at Jackson Hole, this update works the arithmetic of a 25bps cut across $7.5 trillion of adjustable-rate private debt, the late-summer surge in flows, the September tax drain a few weeks out, and fall seasonality. Members Aug 13

08/13/2025 Market Update

New all-time highs less than two weeks after the sell-off, and a cooler July inflation print. The bulk of the update is arithmetic: public versus private debt growth across 2024 and 2025, the profit-investment curve, and what multiple rate cuts would do to both. Members Aug 4

08/04/2025 Market Update

After the jobs-report sell-off, the update examines whether the labor miss reflects a supply shock or firings, softness in corporate tax receipts, the rate-cut outlook, and the phases of the cycle framework from fiscal surprise onward. Members