The archive

Sep 17

What Really Drives the Price of Bitcoin? Debunking the Liquidity Myth

The Fed-liquidity story for Bitcoin doesn't survive contact with the data: QE swaps assets rather than creating them, fiscal flows do the creating, and price follows them with a roughly ten-month lag. Free Sep 15

09/15/2025 Market Update

Introduces Fiscal Flow Acceleration, a new tool built on the Daily Treasury Statement, then turns to September seasonality, the corporate tax drain, Wednesday's Fed decision, and the Supreme Court tariff case with a $150B refund riding on it. Members Sep 9

Jobs Data, Supply Shocks, and Where We Really Are in the Cycle

Payrolls land at 22,000 against a 75,000 expectation. The case that this is a post-supply-shock hiring pause, not a cycle rolling over: credit drawdown is accelerating, inflation is falling, and layoffs are not spiking. Free Sep 8

09/08/2025 Market Update

One of the weakest payrolls prints in years, the Supreme Court tariff case and its potential $150 billion-plus refund, gold's surge, a sagging dollar, and emerging markets — with CPI due Thursday. Members Sep 1

09/01/2025 Market Update

A Labor Day read on a compressed tape: the appeals-court tariff ruling now headed toward the Supreme Court, fiscal's role in the credit cycle, VIX at its lowest since late 2024, and the September corporate tax drain ahead. Members Aug 25

08/25/2025 Market Update

After Powell signaled cuts at Jackson Hole, this update works the arithmetic of a 25bps cut across $7.5 trillion of adjustable-rate private debt, the late-summer surge in flows, the September tax drain a few weeks out, and fall seasonality. Members Aug 13

08/13/2025 Market Update

New all-time highs less than two weeks after the sell-off, and a cooler July inflation print. The bulk of the update is arithmetic: public versus private debt growth across 2024 and 2025, the profit-investment curve, and what multiple rate cuts would do to both. Members Aug 4

08/04/2025 Market Update

After the jobs-report sell-off, the update examines whether the labor miss reflects a supply shock or firings, softness in corporate tax receipts, the rate-cut outlook, and the phases of the cycle framework from fiscal surprise onward. Members Jul 28

07/28/2025 Market Update

The macro theme this week is the handoff from fiscal-driven to credit-driven growth: tariffs acting as a tax, tax-receipt growth decelerating, and the early anatomy of the first credit bubble in fifteen years. Members Jul 15

07/15/2025 Market Update

A deeper-than-usual June tax drain meets the fastest credit expansion since late 2023. Covered: the 0.3% CPI uptick, real fiscal flows under rising tariffs, dealer hedging into this week's OpEx, and the flow-phase model's mid-cycle read. Members Jul 2

07/02/2025 Market Update

The Big Beautiful Bill against the CBO's $2.4 trillion score, two simulations of the tax cuts, a roughly $5 trillion debt-ceiling raise and the Treasury issuance to follow, and the proposed SLR cut from 5% to 3.5%. Members Jun 26

06/25/2025 Market Update

The Nasdaq hits all-time highs on Nvidia earnings while fiscal flows weaken into the corporate tax drain; the update weighs two explanations for the falling dollar, including Mosler's export-import reversal. Members