The archive

Jun 16

06/16/2025 Market Update

Israel's strike on Iran and oil's break above $70, the surge in lending to non-depository financial institutions and the debate over what it signals, the June tax drain, and the weakening dollar as an inflation channel. Members Jun 5

06/05/2025 Market Update

The rally off April's tariff selloff approaches a pivot point, with the June tax drain ahead, bank credit accelerating, the bond market and dollar sliding, and a jobs report and CPI print due to weigh in. Members May 28

05/28/2025 Market Update

The weekly tape takes a back seat to the cycle question, run through the Minsky framework: the CBO's $3.5-4 trillion score on the One Big Beautiful Bill, the trade war's imprint on the dollar, and what the credit data says about the remaining runway. Members May 20

05/20/2025 Market Update

With the S&P inside four percent of its February highs, attention turns to mid-to-late-cycle dynamics: credit-driven growth, eurozone equities outperforming, a sliding dollar, oil still under $70, and the deficit path of the budget bill under negotiation. Members May 9

05/09/2025 Market Update

The recovery off April's low grinds on. On the docket: what tariff front-running did to inventories, hiring, and the inflation path in simulation, fiscal and credit flows, and the budget announcements due by early June. Members Apr 29

04/29/2025 Market Update

Markets test the 5500 zone that has capped them since the early-April selloff. The bear case of tariffs, retrenchment, and wavering confidence is weighed against surging loan growth, April's roughly $12 billion tariff take, and the data due next. Members Apr 23

04/23/2025 Market Update

Overnight futures jumped more than 3% on softer tariff talk, then gave most of it back. The update covers the contested 5,500 zone, stable government spending data, tariff receipts showing up in Treasury deposits, and the budget talks ahead. Members Apr 14

04/14/2025 Market Update

Tariffs paused for 90 days and stocks up about 12.5% from the lows. Covered: the debt-ceiling timeline, April tax receipts and bank reserves, and two competing readings of falling bonds and a weaker dollar. Members Apr 6

04/06/2025 Market Update

Markets shed roughly 10% in three days. The update separates the mechanics — tariff front-running, debt-ceiling plumbing and the TGA, delayed repatriation of foreign dollars — from what bank credit and jobs data actually show. Members Mar 31

03/31/2025 Market Update

This session traces the debt-ceiling impasse through the banking system — undrained reserves, regulatory capital limits, the reverse-repo backstop — alongside April's tax drain into the TGA and the week's jobs data. Members Mar 24

03/24/2025 Market Update

A sharp Monday rally after weeks of March selling. The update walks through negative-gamma mechanics post-OpEx, DeepMMT's divergence from price, the Minsky flow-phase model's first Phase 2 reading in two years, and the week's GDP and PCE prints. Members Mar 13

03/13/2025 Market Update

Ten percent off the February high with none of the usual volatility spike. The update works through the case for a negative-gamma feedback loop, the debt-ceiling clog in Treasury issuance, and macro data — gold, the dollar, European equities — pointing the other way. Members