The archive

Jul 28

07/28/2025 Market Update

The macro theme this week is the handoff from fiscal-driven to credit-driven growth: tariffs acting as a tax, tax-receipt growth decelerating, and the early anatomy of the first credit bubble in fifteen years. Members Jul 15

07/15/2025 Market Update

A deeper-than-usual June tax drain meets the fastest credit expansion since late 2023. Covered: the 0.3% CPI uptick, real fiscal flows under rising tariffs, dealer hedging into this week's OpEx, and the flow-phase model's mid-cycle read. Members Jul 2

07/02/2025 Market Update

The Big Beautiful Bill against the CBO's $2.4 trillion score, two simulations of the tax cuts, a roughly $5 trillion debt-ceiling raise and the Treasury issuance to follow, and the proposed SLR cut from 5% to 3.5%. Members Jun 26

06/25/2025 Market Update

The Nasdaq hits all-time highs on Nvidia earnings while fiscal flows weaken into the corporate tax drain; the update weighs two explanations for the falling dollar, including Mosler's export-import reversal. Members Jun 16

06/16/2025 Market Update

Israel's strike on Iran and oil's break above $70, the surge in lending to non-depository financial institutions and the debate over what it signals, the June tax drain, and the weakening dollar as an inflation channel. Members Jun 5

06/05/2025 Market Update

The rally off April's tariff selloff approaches a pivot point, with the June tax drain ahead, bank credit accelerating, the bond market and dollar sliding, and a jobs report and CPI print due to weigh in. Members May 28

05/28/2025 Market Update

The weekly tape takes a back seat to the cycle question, run through the Minsky framework: the CBO's $3.5-4 trillion score on the One Big Beautiful Bill, the trade war's imprint on the dollar, and what the credit data says about the remaining runway. Members May 20

05/20/2025 Market Update

With the S&P inside four percent of its February highs, attention turns to mid-to-late-cycle dynamics: credit-driven growth, eurozone equities outperforming, a sliding dollar, oil still under $70, and the deficit path of the budget bill under negotiation. Members May 9

05/09/2025 Market Update

The recovery off April's low grinds on. On the docket: what tariff front-running did to inventories, hiring, and the inflation path in simulation, fiscal and credit flows, and the budget announcements due by early June. Members Apr 29

04/29/2025 Market Update

Markets test the 5500 zone that has capped them since the early-April selloff. The bear case of tariffs, retrenchment, and wavering confidence is weighed against surging loan growth, April's roughly $12 billion tariff take, and the data due next. Members Apr 23

04/23/2025 Market Update

Overnight futures jumped more than 3% on softer tariff talk, then gave most of it back. The update covers the contested 5,500 zone, stable government spending data, tariff receipts showing up in Treasury deposits, and the budget talks ahead. Members Apr 14

04/14/2025 Market Update

Tariffs paused for 90 days and stocks up about 12.5% from the lows. Covered: the debt-ceiling timeline, April tax receipts and bank reserves, and two competing readings of falling bonds and a weaker dollar. Members