The archive

Aug 13

08/13/2025 Market Update

New all-time highs less than two weeks after the sell-off, and a cooler July inflation print. The bulk of the update is arithmetic: public versus private debt growth across 2024 and 2025, the profit-investment curve, and what multiple rate cuts would do to both. Members Aug 4

08/04/2025 Market Update

After the jobs-report sell-off, the update examines whether the labor miss reflects a supply shock or firings, softness in corporate tax receipts, the rate-cut outlook, and the phases of the cycle framework from fiscal surprise onward. Members Jul 28

07/28/2025 Market Update

The macro theme this week is the handoff from fiscal-driven to credit-driven growth: tariffs acting as a tax, tax-receipt growth decelerating, and the early anatomy of the first credit bubble in fifteen years. Members Jul 15

07/15/2025 Market Update

A deeper-than-usual June tax drain meets the fastest credit expansion since late 2023. Covered: the 0.3% CPI uptick, real fiscal flows under rising tariffs, dealer hedging into this week's OpEx, and the flow-phase model's mid-cycle read. Members Jul 2

07/02/2025 Market Update

The Big Beautiful Bill against the CBO's $2.4 trillion score, two simulations of the tax cuts, a roughly $5 trillion debt-ceiling raise and the Treasury issuance to follow, and the proposed SLR cut from 5% to 3.5%. Members Jun 26

06/25/2025 Market Update

The Nasdaq hits all-time highs on Nvidia earnings while fiscal flows weaken into the corporate tax drain; the update weighs two explanations for the falling dollar, including Mosler's export-import reversal. Members Jun 16

06/16/2025 Market Update

Israel's strike on Iran and oil's break above $70, the surge in lending to non-depository financial institutions and the debate over what it signals, the June tax drain, and the weakening dollar as an inflation channel. Members Jun 5

06/05/2025 Market Update

The rally off April's tariff selloff approaches a pivot point, with the June tax drain ahead, bank credit accelerating, the bond market and dollar sliding, and a jobs report and CPI print due to weigh in. Members May 28

05/28/2025 Market Update

The weekly tape takes a back seat to the cycle question, run through the Minsky framework: the CBO's $3.5-4 trillion score on the One Big Beautiful Bill, the trade war's imprint on the dollar, and what the credit data says about the remaining runway. Members May 20

05/20/2025 Market Update

With the S&P inside four percent of its February highs, attention turns to mid-to-late-cycle dynamics: credit-driven growth, eurozone equities outperforming, a sliding dollar, oil still under $70, and the deficit path of the budget bill under negotiation. Members May 9

05/09/2025 Market Update

The recovery off April's low grinds on. On the docket: what tariff front-running did to inventories, hiring, and the inflation path in simulation, fiscal and credit flows, and the budget announcements due by early June. Members Apr 29

04/29/2025 Market Update

Markets test the 5500 zone that has capped them since the early-April selloff. The bear case of tariffs, retrenchment, and wavering confidence is weighed against surging loan growth, April's roughly $12 billion tariff take, and the data due next. Members