The archive

Apr 23

04/23/2025 Market Update

Overnight futures jumped more than 3% on softer tariff talk, then gave most of it back. The update covers the contested 5,500 zone, stable government spending data, tariff receipts showing up in Treasury deposits, and the budget talks ahead. Members Apr 14

04/14/2025 Market Update

Tariffs paused for 90 days and stocks up about 12.5% from the lows. Covered: the debt-ceiling timeline, April tax receipts and bank reserves, and two competing readings of falling bonds and a weaker dollar. Members Apr 6

04/06/2025 Market Update

Markets shed roughly 10% in three days. The update separates the mechanics — tariff front-running, debt-ceiling plumbing and the TGA, delayed repatriation of foreign dollars — from what bank credit and jobs data actually show. Members Mar 31

03/31/2025 Market Update

This session traces the debt-ceiling impasse through the banking system — undrained reserves, regulatory capital limits, the reverse-repo backstop — alongside April's tax drain into the TGA and the week's jobs data. Members Mar 24

03/24/2025 Market Update

A sharp Monday rally after weeks of March selling. The update walks through negative-gamma mechanics post-OpEx, DeepMMT's divergence from price, the Minsky flow-phase model's first Phase 2 reading in two years, and the week's GDP and PCE prints. Members Mar 13

03/13/2025 Market Update

Ten percent off the February high with none of the usual volatility spike. The update works through the case for a negative-gamma feedback loop, the debt-ceiling clog in Treasury issuance, and macro data — gold, the dollar, European equities — pointing the other way. Members Mar 4

03/04/2025 Market Update

A midweek note on the tariff-driven selloff: dealer hedging in a negative-gamma tape, fiscal flows and near-4% loan growth set against bearish sentiment at 2022 extremes with the market roughly 5% off its highs. Members Mar 3

Strategic Macro & Market Outlook: DeepMMT 2, Growth, and the Case for European & Emerging Markets

A review of DeepMMT 2's forecasts against realized returns, a skeptical read of the GDPNow collapse as tariff front-running, and the framework behind a developing thesis on European and emerging-market equities versus the SPY. Feb 28

What’s Driving the Market Selloff? A Deep Dive into Bonds, Yields, and the Fed

The S&P falls 4.5% in five sessions and the press blames the bond market. The mechanics say otherwise: a debt-ceiling supply shortage in Treasuries, spending run out of the TGA, and falling yields that signal scarcity, not a growth scare. Free Feb 27

02/27/2025 Market Update

With the S&P 500 down 4% from its peak and sentiment at multi-year bearish extremes, this update sorts through tariff and budget uncertainty, the drop in long-bond yields, negative-gamma dealer hedging, and the Fed balance-sheet debate. Members Feb 21

02/21/2025 Market Update

The S&P sits just under resistance at 6,100 after fresh highs. Inside: a weak consumer-sentiment print against firm credit data, the daily spending tracker's read on whether cuts have materialized, and accelerating bank lending. Members Feb 13

Today's CPI Print: A Bullish Signal for the Endogenous Credit Cycle

CPI lands at 3% against a 2.9% consensus. Using the Kalecki price equation, the piece splits the print into markups, wages, and productivity to read where the endogenous credit cycle stands.