The archive

Apr 6

04/06/2025 Market Update

Markets shed roughly 10% in three days. The update separates the mechanics — tariff front-running, debt-ceiling plumbing and the TGA, delayed repatriation of foreign dollars — from what bank credit and jobs data actually show. Members Mar 31

03/31/2025 Market Update

This session traces the debt-ceiling impasse through the banking system — undrained reserves, regulatory capital limits, the reverse-repo backstop — alongside April's tax drain into the TGA and the week's jobs data. Members Mar 24

03/24/2025 Market Update

A sharp Monday rally after weeks of March selling. The update walks through negative-gamma mechanics post-OpEx, DeepMMT's divergence from price, the Minsky flow-phase model's first Phase 2 reading in two years, and the week's GDP and PCE prints. Members Mar 13

03/13/2025 Market Update

Ten percent off the February high with none of the usual volatility spike. The update works through the case for a negative-gamma feedback loop, the debt-ceiling clog in Treasury issuance, and macro data — gold, the dollar, European equities — pointing the other way. Members Mar 4

03/04/2025 Market Update

A midweek note on the tariff-driven selloff: dealer hedging in a negative-gamma tape, fiscal flows and near-4% loan growth set against bearish sentiment at 2022 extremes with the market roughly 5% off its highs. Members Mar 3

Strategic Macro & Market Outlook: DeepMMT 2, Growth, and the Case for European & Emerging Markets

A review of DeepMMT 2's forecasts against realized returns, a skeptical read of the GDPNow collapse as tariff front-running, and the framework behind a developing thesis on European and emerging-market equities versus the SPY. Feb 28

What’s Driving the Market Selloff? A Deep Dive into Bonds, Yields, and the Fed

The S&P falls 4.5% in five sessions and the press blames the bond market. The mechanics say otherwise: a debt-ceiling supply shortage in Treasuries, spending run out of the TGA, and falling yields that signal scarcity, not a growth scare. Free Feb 27

02/27/2025 Market Update

With the S&P 500 down 4% from its peak and sentiment at multi-year bearish extremes, this update sorts through tariff and budget uncertainty, the drop in long-bond yields, negative-gamma dealer hedging, and the Fed balance-sheet debate. Members Feb 21

02/21/2025 Market Update

The S&P sits just under resistance at 6,100 after fresh highs. Inside: a weak consumer-sentiment print against firm credit data, the daily spending tracker's read on whether cuts have materialized, and accelerating bank lending. Members Feb 13

Today's CPI Print: A Bullish Signal for the Endogenous Credit Cycle

CPI lands at 3% against a 2.9% consensus. Using the Kalecki price equation, the piece splits the print into markups, wages, and productivity to read where the endogenous credit cycle stands. Feb 11

Trump’s Economic Vision: A European Replay?

Kevin Hassett lays out the administration's plan — expand labor supply, cut aggregate demand — and it reads like post-GFC Europe. That experiment produced stagnation, weak wages, and worse inflation when the supply shock came. Free Feb 11

02/11/2025 Market Update

Consolidation below 6,100 with hedged, defensive positioning underneath. The update weighs deficit spending running about $25 billion under last year's cumulative pace against a credit cycle that needs roughly three percent loan growth to hold up demand. Members