The archive

Feb 28

What’s Driving the Market Selloff? A Deep Dive into Bonds, Yields, and the Fed

The S&P falls 4.5% in five sessions and the press blames the bond market. The mechanics say otherwise: a debt-ceiling supply shortage in Treasuries, spending run out of the TGA, and falling yields that signal scarcity, not a growth scare. Free Feb 27

02/27/2025 Market Update

With the S&P 500 down 4% from its peak and sentiment at multi-year bearish extremes, this update sorts through tariff and budget uncertainty, the drop in long-bond yields, negative-gamma dealer hedging, and the Fed balance-sheet debate. Members Feb 21

02/21/2025 Market Update

The S&P sits just under resistance at 6,100 after fresh highs. Inside: a weak consumer-sentiment print against firm credit data, the daily spending tracker's read on whether cuts have materialized, and accelerating bank lending. Members Feb 13

Today's CPI Print: A Bullish Signal for the Endogenous Credit Cycle

CPI lands at 3% against a 2.9% consensus. Using the Kalecki price equation, the piece splits the print into markups, wages, and productivity to read where the endogenous credit cycle stands. Feb 11

Trump’s Economic Vision: A European Replay?

Kevin Hassett lays out the administration's plan — expand labor supply, cut aggregate demand — and it reads like post-GFC Europe. That experiment produced stagnation, weak wages, and worse inflation when the supply shock came. Free Feb 11

02/11/2025 Market Update

Consolidation below 6,100 with hedged, defensive positioning underneath. The update weighs deficit spending running about $25 billion under last year's cumulative pace against a credit cycle that needs roughly three percent loan growth to hold up demand. Members Feb 5

02/05/2025 Market Update

The video update works through the S&P's stalled test of 6,100, what the debt-ceiling issuance freeze and TGA measures are doing to yields, and simulation runs that model tariffs as a direct tax on importers. Members Feb 4

Tariffs, Growth, and Inflation: What No One is Talking About

Tariffs are a tax: they drain financial assets from the private sector and slow growth unless offset by spending. Whether they're inflationary turns on pass-through — in 2018, firms mostly ate the cost, and margins, not prices, took the hit. Free Feb 3

The Credit Cycle, Government Spending Cuts, and the Macroeconomic Outlook

Government spending is slowing — spending pauses, DOGE cuts, roughly $250 billion in tariff revenue — leaving private credit creation, growing about 3% on a $42.5 trillion base, to carry aggregate demand. Whether it can is the question this piece works through. Jan 28

01/28/2025 Market Update

The DeepSeek selloff and the rebound that followed, the OMB funding-freeze drama, DOGE's spending review, and what a slowing fiscal engine means for a market that would have to run on private credit — with the dotcom-era parallel in view. Members Jan 26

The Trump Administration’s First Moves: Credit Cycle to Credit Bubble?

Week one of the Trump administration puts an estimated $250-500 billion of spending cuts in motion. When deficits decelerate, growth leans on private credit creation - the classic bubble setup, with private debt near 145-155% of GDP. Jan 24

Trump 2.0: What It Means for Markets and Fiscal Flows

DOGE promises up to $2 trillion in cuts; the arithmetic of non-discretionary spending says $250-500 billion at most. A flow-by-flow accounting of the new administration's fiscal agenda and what it leaves intact for markets. Free