The archive

Jan 26

The Trump Administration’s First Moves: Credit Cycle to Credit Bubble?

Week one of the Trump administration puts an estimated $250-500 billion of spending cuts in motion. When deficits decelerate, growth leans on private credit creation - the classic bubble setup, with private debt near 145-155% of GDP. Jan 24

Trump 2.0: What It Means for Markets and Fiscal Flows

DOGE promises up to $2 trillion in cuts; the arithmetic of non-discretionary spending says $250-500 billion at most. A flow-by-flow accounting of the new administration's fiscal agenda and what it leaves intact for markets. Free Jan 20

01/20/2025 Market Update

An inauguration-week read: what Trump's speech did and didn't say on tariffs and spending, plus fiscal flows, bank credit, interest income, and the setup into February's options expiration and the April tax season. Members Jan 17

Understanding Rising Treasury Yields: Debunking the Macro Bear Narratives

Long-end yields are climbing and the doom chorus is back. Rising growth and inflation expectations explain the move; the debt-crisis and no-demand-for-Treasuries stories don't survive how reserves and issuance actually work. Free Jan 16

Inflection Point for Yields - Inflation & Employment

The long end has risen sharply while markets pare back rate-cut expectations. An MMT reading of the move: rate hikes as interest-income injections, the labor-market feedback loop, and the transition from Quad 4 to Quad 3. Jan 11

01/11/2025 Market Update

After a week of heavy selling, the video update works through the volatility setup, the fiscal flow sentiment ratio, dark pool activity, the January 17 options expiration, and where oil, Bitcoin, and gold sit ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Members Jan 7

Introducing DeepMMT 2: Total Market Equity Return Forecast

DeepMMT 2 gains a Total Market Equity Return Forecast module: a system-dynamics simulator that treats the private sector as one balance sheet and projects year-over-year equity returns, with a validation run seeded at end-2020 and its limitations stated plainly. Jan 6

Forecasting GDP is a Tough Science

The Atlanta Fed's nowcast reads 3.3%, the New York Fed's 1.8%, DeepMMT 2's 2.65% — until a day later, when it jumps to 3.1%. On the choice to let a continuous-time model run rather than adjust it to expectations. Free Jan 2

01/02/2025 Market Update

Sideways since September with drawdowns under 5%. December's flow dip, the bond market's repricing after the December FOMC, and the loans-and-leases data feeding the 2025 growth outlook. Members Dec 28

Algorithmic Allocation vs. Dynamic Portfolio Allocation: A Comparative Overview

A side-by-side of two ways to allocate capital: standard optimization on historical prices toward one benchmark portfolio, versus DeepMMT 2's regime approach — separate allocations per macro quadrant, weights shifting as forecasts change. Dec 23

12/23/2024 Market Update

Markets claw back half of the post-FOMC selloff after the Fed's quarter-point cut and shift to data dependence. Also in view: dealer repositioning, a dark-pool reset, December's fading tax drain, and the stopgap spending bill. Members Dec 22

Hybrid HRP/MVO Dynamic Portfolios

A portfolio-construction note: blending Mean-Variance Optimization with Hierarchical Risk Parity at roughly 70/30, tested across sector, market-cap, and bond ETF rotations with a 15% misclassification error built in.