The archive

Dec 18

Strategic Guide: Portfolio Construction

A working guide to the two DeepMMT 2 quadrant forecasts — inflation against GDP, and inflation against equity returns — and how to turn them into portfolio positioning, from hierarchical risk parity weights to scaling equity exposure. Dec 12

12/12/2024 Market Update

The S&P keeps climbing through one of the longest price-flow divergences since the pre-COVID era; the update weighs the parallel to late 2017's run into Volmageddon, the December FOMC, and core inflation stuck above 3%. Members Dec 10

December 2024 Monthly Outlook

A Santa Claus rally running on year-end flows, set against a dark-pool divergence that has historically preceded sharp corrections. The outlook maps the 2025 scenarios: fiscal cuts, business-cycle acceleration, and bubble-economy risks further out. Members Dec 2

12/02/2024 Market Update

With the S&P at fresh all-time highs into December, the update covers sticky Core PCE inflation, the 75 basis points of Fed cuts markets have priced, dark-pool divergences, and a data week ending in the November jobs report. Members Nov 20

11/20/2024 Market Update

The post-election rally has largely round-tripped, and attention turns to the incoming administration's fiscal agenda: proposed spending cuts on an Argentina-like scale, tax-cut offsets, and the speculative-lending risk that comes with deregulation. Members Nov 13

DeepMMT 2 Inflation Forecast: Hot then Drop

The DeepMMT 2 model reads October's 2.6% CPI as the front end of a hot-then-drop path: elevated prints through December, modest relief in early 2025, with the Fed's November cut and a probable December follow-on factored in. Free Nov 12

11/12/2024 Market Update

A week of post-election rally, the incoming administration's designs on spending and the Fed, simulations on immigration and the labor force, bonds, the dollar, sub-$70 oil, and gamma stacked around 6,000 into expiration. Members Nov 6

November 2024 Monthly Outlook

The monthly outlook lands the morning after Trump's re-election, covering the post-election rally, the next day's FOMC, the inflation arithmetic of tariffs and immigration limits, and business-cycle projections out to 2026. Members Nov 4

11/04/2024 Market Update

Election night and an FOMC decision fall in the same week. The update takes up post-event dealer repositioning, Friday's weak payroll report, and what sustained deficit-driven flows imply for the fourth quarter. Members Oct 29

10/29/2024 Market Update

Volatility sits compressed a week out from the election. Also covered: a JOLTS miss, modest bank credit against flat loans and leases, the unwind risk around pre-election hedging, and GDP and unemployment releases on deck. Members Oct 21

10/21/2024 Market Update

Post-opex, with dealer hedging reset, the update relaunches the Flow Phase model in three phases instead of four and previews MESSSi, the endogenous macro simulator built with Ty Keynes, alongside fresh Treasury flow data. Members Oct 11

10/11/2024 Market Update

An inflation print that beat expectations, and what it implies about where the business cycle stands. Also covered: the S&P's breakout, the Fed's procyclical rate behavior, oil, and the deficit path into 2025. Members