The archive

Jan 7

Introducing DeepMMT 2: Total Market Equity Return Forecast

DeepMMT 2 gains a Total Market Equity Return Forecast module: a system-dynamics simulator that treats the private sector as one balance sheet and projects year-over-year equity returns, with a validation run seeded at end-2020 and its limitations stated plainly. Jan 6

Forecasting GDP is a Tough Science

The Atlanta Fed's nowcast reads 3.3%, the New York Fed's 1.8%, DeepMMT 2's 2.65% — until a day later, when it jumps to 3.1%. On the choice to let a continuous-time model run rather than adjust it to expectations. Free Jan 2

01/02/2025 Market Update

Sideways since September with drawdowns under 5%. December's flow dip, the bond market's repricing after the December FOMC, and the loans-and-leases data feeding the 2025 growth outlook. Members Dec 28

Algorithmic Allocation vs. Dynamic Portfolio Allocation: A Comparative Overview

A side-by-side of two ways to allocate capital: standard optimization on historical prices toward one benchmark portfolio, versus DeepMMT 2's regime approach — separate allocations per macro quadrant, weights shifting as forecasts change. Dec 23

12/23/2024 Market Update

Markets claw back half of the post-FOMC selloff after the Fed's quarter-point cut and shift to data dependence. Also in view: dealer repositioning, a dark-pool reset, December's fading tax drain, and the stopgap spending bill. Members Dec 22

Hybrid HRP/MVO Dynamic Portfolios

A portfolio-construction note: blending Mean-Variance Optimization with Hierarchical Risk Parity at roughly 70/30, tested across sector, market-cap, and bond ETF rotations with a 15% misclassification error built in. Dec 18

Strategic Guide: Portfolio Construction

A working guide to the two DeepMMT 2 quadrant forecasts — inflation against GDP, and inflation against equity returns — and how to turn them into portfolio positioning, from hierarchical risk parity weights to scaling equity exposure. Dec 12

12/12/2024 Market Update

The S&P keeps climbing through one of the longest price-flow divergences since the pre-COVID era; the update weighs the parallel to late 2017's run into Volmageddon, the December FOMC, and core inflation stuck above 3%. Members Dec 10

December 2024 Monthly Outlook

A Santa Claus rally running on year-end flows, set against a dark-pool divergence that has historically preceded sharp corrections. The outlook maps the 2025 scenarios: fiscal cuts, business-cycle acceleration, and bubble-economy risks further out. Members Dec 2

12/02/2024 Market Update

With the S&P at fresh all-time highs into December, the update covers sticky Core PCE inflation, the 75 basis points of Fed cuts markets have priced, dark-pool divergences, and a data week ending in the November jobs report. Members Nov 20

11/20/2024 Market Update

The post-election rally has largely round-tripped, and attention turns to the incoming administration's fiscal agenda: proposed spending cuts on an Argentina-like scale, tax-cut offsets, and the speculative-lending risk that comes with deregulation. Members Nov 13

DeepMMT 2 Inflation Forecast: Hot then Drop

The DeepMMT 2 model reads October's 2.6% CPI as the front end of a hot-then-drop path: elevated prints through December, modest relief in early 2025, with the Fed's November cut and a probable December follow-on factored in. Free