The archive

Nov 12

11/12/2024 Market Update

A week of post-election rally, the incoming administration's designs on spending and the Fed, simulations on immigration and the labor force, bonds, the dollar, sub-$70 oil, and gamma stacked around 6,000 into expiration. Members Nov 6

November 2024 Monthly Outlook

The monthly outlook lands the morning after Trump's re-election, covering the post-election rally, the next day's FOMC, the inflation arithmetic of tariffs and immigration limits, and business-cycle projections out to 2026. Members Nov 4

11/04/2024 Market Update

Election night and an FOMC decision fall in the same week. The update takes up post-event dealer repositioning, Friday's weak payroll report, and what sustained deficit-driven flows imply for the fourth quarter. Members Oct 29

10/29/2024 Market Update

Volatility sits compressed a week out from the election. Also covered: a JOLTS miss, modest bank credit against flat loans and leases, the unwind risk around pre-election hedging, and GDP and unemployment releases on deck. Members Oct 21

10/21/2024 Market Update

Post-opex, with dealer hedging reset, the update relaunches the Flow Phase model in three phases instead of four and previews MESSSi, the endogenous macro simulator built with Ty Keynes, alongside fresh Treasury flow data. Members Oct 11

10/11/2024 Market Update

An inflation print that beat expectations, and what it implies about where the business cycle stands. Also covered: the S&P's breakout, the Fed's procyclical rate behavior, oil, and the deficit path into 2025. Members Oct 7

October 2024 Monthly Outlook

Sentiment has run ahead of flows with stocks near all-time highs. Oil's jump from $67 to $80 in a week, still-robust inflation-adjusted deficit spending, and DeepMMT's early signal on the 2025 rate path fill out the month's picture. Members Oct 4

10/04/2024 Market Update

A sideways week ends with a late rally and a strong payroll surprise. Wage pressure is building; the update covers next week's CPI as a potential inflection point and the long end of the bond market repricing the Fed's cutting plans. Members Sep 27

09/27/2024 Market Update

Fiscal and bank-credit flows set against dealer hedging, dark-pool divergence, a dollar pushing lower, and TLT rejecting its 2023 level. GDP came in on expectations; next week's jobs data sets the tone for the Fed into 2025. Members Sep 20

09/20/2024 Market Update

A 50 basis point cut, a pop-drop-pop into new highs, a wage-inflation divergence surfacing in the payroll data, the September 16 tax drawdown, and the October 4 jobs report as the next tell on wages. Members Sep 12

09/12/2024 Market Update

The mid-July consolidation gets read against a 2019 analog, alongside the latest monthly Treasury statement, the seasonal tax-and-OpEx volatility window into October, and the hundred basis points of cuts the market has priced ahead of the FOMC. Members Sep 5

09/05/2024 Market Update

Volatility is back and the gap between price and flows is widening into the mid-September tax drain; tomorrow's jobs report matters mostly for average hourly earnings and the next phase of inflation. Members