The archive

Sep 2

September 2024 Monthly Outlook

The monthly outlook runs the expected Fed cuts through an MMT lens: the average rate on outstanding Treasuries sits below Fed funds, so new issuance adds interest income either way. Plus September tax drains, fiscal flows, and the wage and oil tells. Members Aug 29

08/29/2024 Market Update

Sideways chop after the August selloff. The update takes up the late-summer spending surge and its shortfall against 2023, the widening gap between flows and price, and what the September tax drain sets up for October. Members Aug 21

08/21/2024 Market Update

The rebound from early August's selling has the S&P within 1% of all-time highs. On the gap between price and flows, the 5700-5750 resistance zone, Jackson Hole, and the September data calendar. Members Aug 13

08/13/2024 Market Update

The S&P rallies hard while the market splits between 25 and 50 basis points for September. The update reads volatility compression against the 2018 pattern, August flows, the Monthly Treasury Statement, margin debt, and bank credit. Members Aug 6

08/06/2024 Market Update

Monday's near-5% plunge in the S&P 500 followed the unwind of the yen carry trade. The update sets the episode against early 2018, then takes stock of the credit cycle and a three-variable read on recession risk — private debt, deficits, and credit change. Members Aug 2

08/02/2024 Market Update

Stocks down about 2.5% on a payrolls miss, with one of the biggest VIX surges since February 2023. The update works through the vol shift model, sentiment-flow alignment, late-summer fiscal seasonality, and August options expiration. Members Jul 26

07/26/2024 Market Update

Nearly 5% off the July 16th high. Covered here: the negative-gamma map beneath the tape, late-July fiscal flow seasonals, and what Wednesday's FOMC and Friday's jobs print mean for the September cut markets are pricing. Members Jul 18

07/18/2024 Market Update

Two days of heavier selling frame this session: sentiment stretched against flows, the post-expiration gamma setup, dark-pool participation, July's fiscal-flow low, and accelerating bank credit, with a data run into the July 31 FOMC. Members Jul 12

07/11/2024 Market Update

The first deep red day in months: S&P down nearly 1%, Nasdaq over 2%. On the docket are September cut odds near 90%, the June Treasury statement, sentiment at bullish extremes, the gamma picture, and the Deep MMT model's latest reading. Members Jul 2

07/02/2024 Market Update

Two weeks of sideways tape while 90-day fiscal flows bottom into July. Also covered: a June surplus, stronger-than-expected corporate tax receipts, gamma positioning, the dark pool divergence, and the September rate-cut odds. Members Jun 26

06/26/2024 Market Update

Post-OPEX positioning, a falling 90-day flow average, the prospect of a June fiscal surplus month, gamma and dark-pool readings, and GDP and PCE data due at week's end. Members Jun 18

06/18/2024 Market Update

New all-time highs against stretched sentiment. The update walks the June inflection points — the corporate tax drain, options expiration, dealer gamma — and introduces DeepMMT's new probability cone for price paths. Members