The archive

Sep 27

09/27/2024 Market Update

Fiscal and bank-credit flows set against dealer hedging, dark-pool divergence, a dollar pushing lower, and TLT rejecting its 2023 level. GDP came in on expectations; next week's jobs data sets the tone for the Fed into 2025. Members Sep 20

09/20/2024 Market Update

A 50 basis point cut, a pop-drop-pop into new highs, a wage-inflation divergence surfacing in the payroll data, the September 16 tax drawdown, and the October 4 jobs report as the next tell on wages. Members Sep 12

09/12/2024 Market Update

The mid-July consolidation gets read against a 2019 analog, alongside the latest monthly Treasury statement, the seasonal tax-and-OpEx volatility window into October, and the hundred basis points of cuts the market has priced ahead of the FOMC. Members Sep 5

09/05/2024 Market Update

Volatility is back and the gap between price and flows is widening into the mid-September tax drain; tomorrow's jobs report matters mostly for average hourly earnings and the next phase of inflation. Members Sep 2

September 2024 Monthly Outlook

The monthly outlook runs the expected Fed cuts through an MMT lens: the average rate on outstanding Treasuries sits below Fed funds, so new issuance adds interest income either way. Plus September tax drains, fiscal flows, and the wage and oil tells. Members Aug 29

08/29/2024 Market Update

Sideways chop after the August selloff. The update takes up the late-summer spending surge and its shortfall against 2023, the widening gap between flows and price, and what the September tax drain sets up for October. Members Aug 21

08/21/2024 Market Update

The rebound from early August's selling has the S&P within 1% of all-time highs. On the gap between price and flows, the 5700-5750 resistance zone, Jackson Hole, and the September data calendar. Members Aug 13

08/13/2024 Market Update

The S&P rallies hard while the market splits between 25 and 50 basis points for September. The update reads volatility compression against the 2018 pattern, August flows, the Monthly Treasury Statement, margin debt, and bank credit. Members Aug 6

08/06/2024 Market Update

Monday's near-5% plunge in the S&P 500 followed the unwind of the yen carry trade. The update sets the episode against early 2018, then takes stock of the credit cycle and a three-variable read on recession risk — private debt, deficits, and credit change. Members Aug 2

08/02/2024 Market Update

Stocks down about 2.5% on a payrolls miss, with one of the biggest VIX surges since February 2023. The update works through the vol shift model, sentiment-flow alignment, late-summer fiscal seasonality, and August options expiration. Members Jul 26

07/26/2024 Market Update

Nearly 5% off the July 16th high. Covered here: the negative-gamma map beneath the tape, late-July fiscal flow seasonals, and what Wednesday's FOMC and Friday's jobs print mean for the September cut markets are pricing. Members Jul 18

07/18/2024 Market Update

Two days of heavier selling frame this session: sentiment stretched against flows, the post-expiration gamma setup, dark-pool participation, July's fiscal-flow low, and accelerating bank credit, with a data run into the July 31 FOMC. Members