The archive

May 23

05/23/2024 Market Update

Stocks sell off in the post-expiration window after a month of volatility compression. Covered: dealer hedging levels, the June tax drain ahead, accelerating bank credit, and oil's place in the inflation picture. Members May 17

05/17/2024 Market Update

Wednesday's cooler CPI print, fiscal flows building into late May, where the credit cycle stands, and the June and September tax-drain windows ahead. Members May 10

05/10/2024 Market Update

Volatility compression, the slow repair of April's tax-drain damage to structural flows, and a week ahead loaded with CPI and a Powell speech — the video update takes stock of each. Members May 3

05/02/2024 Market Update

A post-FOMC session on the April tax drain and its aftermath, the turn in market flows now that tax season has passed, gamma positioning and sentiment, oil's role in the inflation picture, and the employment data ahead. Members Apr 25

04/25/2024 Market Update

A surprisingly weak GDP headline knocks the S&P toward 5000 before a midday recovery. The update takes the print apart — core growth ran 3.1% — and weighs what it means for the Fed's rate path and May's post-tax-season flows. Members Apr 19

04/19/2024 Market Update

An overnight 2% selloff on Israel's retaliation against Iran drops the S&P into the 4900s; the update walks through VIX Bollinger closes, dark pool activity, the volatility-shift model, and the question of when flows return. Members Apr 17

04/17/2024 Market Update

The sharpest pullback since late 2023 arrives in the middle of tax-drain season. The update reads it through RSI momentum extremes, dealer hedging data, and the historical pattern of May lagging while tax payments drain flows. Members Apr 11

04/11/2024 Market Update

CPI comes in hot and selling pressure reaches a five-month high. The update covers dealer hedging around 5200, the April options expiration, and the fiscal-versus-credit picture in the Monthly Treasury Statement. Members Apr 10

CPI Comes in Hot, Rate Cuts in Doubt

March CPI prints 3.8% against a 3.7% forecast and rate-cut odds fade. The post walks through why, in this framework, higher rates feed the fiscal-and-credit growth cycle rather than cool it. Free Apr 3

04/03/2024 Market Update

Sentiment and momentum at extremes as tax season approaches. On the table: dealer hedging levels, the scale of the April tax drain, oil's climb, and what a strong employment report would mean for the Fed's path. Members Mar 28

03/28/2024 Market Update

Forty-four years of average daily S&P returns frame the seasonal flow picture, alongside deficit spending trends, bank credit, sentiment and dark pool extremes, and the approaching April tax drain and options expiration. Members Mar 21

03/21/2024 Market Update

Rates hold and the market hears dovish, with futures snapping toward June cuts; from there, whether cuts would actually stimulate, extreme sentiment against strong flows at the new highs, and the week ahead in GDP and PCE. Members