The archive

Apr 25

04/25/2024 Market Update

A surprisingly weak GDP headline knocks the S&P toward 5000 before a midday recovery. The update takes the print apart — core growth ran 3.1% — and weighs what it means for the Fed's rate path and May's post-tax-season flows. Members Apr 19

04/19/2024 Market Update

An overnight 2% selloff on Israel's retaliation against Iran drops the S&P into the 4900s; the update walks through VIX Bollinger closes, dark pool activity, the volatility-shift model, and the question of when flows return. Members Apr 17

04/17/2024 Market Update

The sharpest pullback since late 2023 arrives in the middle of tax-drain season. The update reads it through RSI momentum extremes, dealer hedging data, and the historical pattern of May lagging while tax payments drain flows. Members Apr 11

04/11/2024 Market Update

CPI comes in hot and selling pressure reaches a five-month high. The update covers dealer hedging around 5200, the April options expiration, and the fiscal-versus-credit picture in the Monthly Treasury Statement. Members Apr 10

CPI Comes in Hot, Rate Cuts in Doubt

March CPI prints 3.8% against a 3.7% forecast and rate-cut odds fade. The post walks through why, in this framework, higher rates feed the fiscal-and-credit growth cycle rather than cool it. Free Apr 3

04/03/2024 Market Update

Sentiment and momentum at extremes as tax season approaches. On the table: dealer hedging levels, the scale of the April tax drain, oil's climb, and what a strong employment report would mean for the Fed's path. Members Mar 28

03/28/2024 Market Update

Forty-four years of average daily S&P returns frame the seasonal flow picture, alongside deficit spending trends, bank credit, sentiment and dark pool extremes, and the approaching April tax drain and options expiration. Members Mar 21

03/21/2024 Market Update

Rates hold and the market hears dovish, with futures snapping toward June cuts; from there, whether cuts would actually stimulate, extreme sentiment against strong flows at the new highs, and the week ahead in GDP and PCE. Members Mar 13

03/13/2024 Market Update

CPI came in hot and the market rallied anyway. Spring 2021's speculative phase is the reference point, alongside bank credit, fiscal flows, the tax-season drain, and the FOMC ahead. Members Mar 5

03/05/2024 Market Update

Volatility models, gamma exposure, and dark pool positioning around the S&P's 5050 support level, with Powell's testimony and the ADP and JOLTS releases directly ahead. Members Feb 29

02/29/2024 Market Update

Gamma exposure weakening under extreme bullish sentiment, DeepMMT's read on current levels, and the strength in bank credit and fiscal flows heading toward April's tax season — plus a new tutorial video for the tools. Members Feb 22

02/22/2024 Market Update

Nvidia's earnings beat sends the S&P and Nasdaq to fresh all-time highs; the update weighs the rally against dealer gamma positioning, a new Flow Sentiment Ratio, and next week's GDP and core PCE prints. Members