The archive

Apr 17

04/17/2024 Market Update

The sharpest pullback since late 2023 arrives in the middle of tax-drain season. The update reads it through RSI momentum extremes, dealer hedging data, and the historical pattern of May lagging while tax payments drain flows. Members Apr 11

04/11/2024 Market Update

CPI comes in hot and selling pressure reaches a five-month high. The update covers dealer hedging around 5200, the April options expiration, and the fiscal-versus-credit picture in the Monthly Treasury Statement. Members Apr 10

CPI Comes in Hot, Rate Cuts in Doubt

March CPI prints 3.8% against a 3.7% forecast and rate-cut odds fade. The post walks through why, in this framework, higher rates feed the fiscal-and-credit growth cycle rather than cool it. Free Apr 3

04/03/2024 Market Update

Sentiment and momentum at extremes as tax season approaches. On the table: dealer hedging levels, the scale of the April tax drain, oil's climb, and what a strong employment report would mean for the Fed's path. Members Mar 28

03/28/2024 Market Update

Forty-four years of average daily S&P returns frame the seasonal flow picture, alongside deficit spending trends, bank credit, sentiment and dark pool extremes, and the approaching April tax drain and options expiration. Members Mar 21

03/21/2024 Market Update

Rates hold and the market hears dovish, with futures snapping toward June cuts; from there, whether cuts would actually stimulate, extreme sentiment against strong flows at the new highs, and the week ahead in GDP and PCE. Members Mar 13

03/13/2024 Market Update

CPI came in hot and the market rallied anyway. Spring 2021's speculative phase is the reference point, alongside bank credit, fiscal flows, the tax-season drain, and the FOMC ahead. Members Mar 5

03/05/2024 Market Update

Volatility models, gamma exposure, and dark pool positioning around the S&P's 5050 support level, with Powell's testimony and the ADP and JOLTS releases directly ahead. Members Feb 29

02/29/2024 Market Update

Gamma exposure weakening under extreme bullish sentiment, DeepMMT's read on current levels, and the strength in bank credit and fiscal flows heading toward April's tax season — plus a new tutorial video for the tools. Members Feb 22

02/22/2024 Market Update

Nvidia's earnings beat sends the S&P and Nasdaq to fresh all-time highs; the update weighs the rally against dealer gamma positioning, a new Flow Sentiment Ratio, and next week's GDP and core PCE prints. Members Feb 19

02/19/2024 Short Term Market Update

A detour from the usual macro cadence into short-term territory: the stall near 5,000, overbought readings on the new Flow Sentiment Tool, and what the dollar, bonds, and oil are signaling heading into options expiration. Members Feb 13

02/13/2024 Market Update

The morning's CPI report came in well above expectations and set off one of the most volatile sessions since fall 2023. The update works through the Fed repricing, the VIX spike, and where fiscal and banking flows sit heading into February OPEX. Members