The archive

Feb 19

02/19/2024 Short Term Market Update

A detour from the usual macro cadence into short-term territory: the stall near 5,000, overbought readings on the new Flow Sentiment Tool, and what the dollar, bonds, and oil are signaling heading into options expiration. Members Feb 13

02/13/2024 Market Update

The morning's CPI report came in well above expectations and set off one of the most volatile sessions since fall 2023. The update works through the Fed repricing, the VIX spike, and where fiscal and banking flows sit heading into February OPEX. Members Feb 6

02/05/2024 Market Update

A video-update week built around the Minsky two-cycle frame: fiscal flows and endogenous bank money, Granger-causality tests linking government debt to credit, and the CPI print and February OPEX ahead. Members Jan 24

01/24/2024 Market Update

A reversal off fresh all-time highs at the 4900 level sets the agenda: the gamma build there, the odds of a March hold from the Fed, the gradual recovery in bank credit, and sentiment heading into February. Members Jan 18

01/17/2024 Market Update

Consolidation after the late-2023 run. The video update covers the late-January slowdown in fiscal flows, OpEx week, March rate-cut odds against strong retail sales, the Flow Phase model, and early signs of a bank-credit rebound. Members Jan 10

01/09/2024 Market Update

The Kelton curve on rates and debt-to-GDP, what higher rates mean for bank risk-taking, the Eurodollar system's reach into global credit, and a read of the bank credit data ahead of the March FOMC. Members Jan 3

01/03/2024 Market Update

The first update of the year covers the January volatility spike, early signs of a new bank credit cycle, still-strong fiscal flows, a Deep MMT retrain for 2024, and the calendar ahead: January OpEx, then the March FOMC. Members Dec 27

12/27/2023 Market Update

Dealer hedging runs the reverse of late 2022 in this year-end update, alongside the seasonal slowdown in fiscal flows, bullish sentiment at extremes, the dark pool index, and January 19 — the first options expiration of the new year. Members Dec 21

12/20/2023 Market Update

Wednesday's sell-off ends the run that began in early November. The update reads the volatility spike through DeepMMT and the vol-shift model, takes up Ritik Goyal's case that higher rates are stimulative, and maps three paths hinging on a March Fed cut. Members Dec 18

12/18/2023 Market Update

Post-OpEx strength marks an inflection in the rally. The video runs the dashboard — volatility shift, gamma exposure, Minsky flow phase, Deep MMT, the dark pool index — against the Fed's newly signaled 2024 rate cuts, plus oil, bonds, and the dollar. Members Dec 13

12/12/2023 Market Update

An in-line CPI print, the NY Fed's supply-chain index as a leading inflation gauge, fiscal dominance set against a static credit sector, and the December 15 confluence of peak fiscal flows, OPEX, and the Fed's rate decision. Members Dec 8

12/08/2023 Market Update

Payrolls beat again and the S&P holds near 4600, with $1.5 trillion in added interest income over twelve months framing the fiscal picture; gamma positioning, the 12/15 OPEX, gold, and Bitcoin round it out. Members