The archive

Dec 21

12/20/2023 Market Update

Wednesday's sell-off ends the run that began in early November. The update reads the volatility spike through DeepMMT and the vol-shift model, takes up Ritik Goyal's case that higher rates are stimulative, and maps three paths hinging on a March Fed cut. Members Dec 18

12/18/2023 Market Update

Post-OpEx strength marks an inflection in the rally. The video runs the dashboard — volatility shift, gamma exposure, Minsky flow phase, Deep MMT, the dark pool index — against the Fed's newly signaled 2024 rate cuts, plus oil, bonds, and the dollar. Members Dec 13

12/12/2023 Market Update

An in-line CPI print, the NY Fed's supply-chain index as a leading inflation gauge, fiscal dominance set against a static credit sector, and the December 15 confluence of peak fiscal flows, OPEX, and the Fed's rate decision. Members Dec 8

12/08/2023 Market Update

Payrolls beat again and the S&P holds near 4600, with $1.5 trillion in added interest income over twelve months framing the fiscal picture; gamma positioning, the 12/15 OPEX, gold, and Bitcoin round it out. Members Dec 6

12/05/2023 - Market Update

Two scenarios for an S&P stuck under 4600 resistance, with the December 15 options expiration and the seasonal mid-month slowdown in flows as the moving parts. November's strong fiscal flow of funds gets a reading of its own. Members Dec 1

12/01/2023 - Market Update

The rally runs on, and December 15th — tax drain plus options expiration — sits ahead as the inflection to watch. Two scenarios for the path into mid-month, with reads from DeepMMT, the Minsky flow phase model, and margin debt. Members Dec 1

11/28/2023 - Market Update

A subscriber-only market update. No written summary accompanied this edition; the full discussion is reserved for members. Members Nov 21

11/21/2023 - Market Update

The post-CPI rally carries November's strength toward year-end. This update reads the Daily Treasury Statement's November peak, bank flow data, and the DeepMMT model against the seasonal pattern into December OPEX. Members Nov 21

Monthly Outlook - December 2023

The December outlook, built on a new tool that sets seasonal fiscal-flow averages against live data. Also here: the 'failed' Treasury auction reconsidered, the Fed as monopoly price-setter, and the redistributive side of rate hikes. Members Nov 1

Introducing AppliedMMT

The launch note. An alternative read of the economy and markets, rooted in Modern Monetary Theory and the mechanics of money that conventional narratives overlook — the framework everything published here is built on. Free