The archive

Feb 6

02/05/2024 Market Update

A video-update week built around the Minsky two-cycle frame: fiscal flows and endogenous bank money, Granger-causality tests linking government debt to credit, and the CPI print and February OPEX ahead. Members Jan 24

01/24/2024 Market Update

A reversal off fresh all-time highs at the 4900 level sets the agenda: the gamma build there, the odds of a March hold from the Fed, the gradual recovery in bank credit, and sentiment heading into February. Members Jan 18

01/17/2024 Market Update

Consolidation after the late-2023 run. The video update covers the late-January slowdown in fiscal flows, OpEx week, March rate-cut odds against strong retail sales, the Flow Phase model, and early signs of a bank-credit rebound. Members Jan 10

01/09/2024 Market Update

The Kelton curve on rates and debt-to-GDP, what higher rates mean for bank risk-taking, the Eurodollar system's reach into global credit, and a read of the bank credit data ahead of the March FOMC. Members Jan 3

01/03/2024 Market Update

The first update of the year covers the January volatility spike, early signs of a new bank credit cycle, still-strong fiscal flows, a Deep MMT retrain for 2024, and the calendar ahead: January OpEx, then the March FOMC. Members Dec 27

12/27/2023 Market Update

Dealer hedging runs the reverse of late 2022 in this year-end update, alongside the seasonal slowdown in fiscal flows, bullish sentiment at extremes, the dark pool index, and January 19 — the first options expiration of the new year. Members Dec 21

12/20/2023 Market Update

Wednesday's sell-off ends the run that began in early November. The update reads the volatility spike through DeepMMT and the vol-shift model, takes up Ritik Goyal's case that higher rates are stimulative, and maps three paths hinging on a March Fed cut. Members Dec 18

12/18/2023 Market Update

Post-OpEx strength marks an inflection in the rally. The video runs the dashboard — volatility shift, gamma exposure, Minsky flow phase, Deep MMT, the dark pool index — against the Fed's newly signaled 2024 rate cuts, plus oil, bonds, and the dollar. Members Dec 13

12/12/2023 Market Update

An in-line CPI print, the NY Fed's supply-chain index as a leading inflation gauge, fiscal dominance set against a static credit sector, and the December 15 confluence of peak fiscal flows, OPEX, and the Fed's rate decision. Members Dec 8

12/08/2023 Market Update

Payrolls beat again and the S&P holds near 4600, with $1.5 trillion in added interest income over twelve months framing the fiscal picture; gamma positioning, the 12/15 OPEX, gold, and Bitcoin round it out. Members Dec 6

12/05/2023 - Market Update

Two scenarios for an S&P stuck under 4600 resistance, with the December 15 options expiration and the seasonal mid-month slowdown in flows as the moving parts. November's strong fiscal flow of funds gets a reading of its own. Members Dec 1

12/01/2023 - Market Update

The rally runs on, and December 15th — tax drain plus options expiration — sits ahead as the inflection to watch. Two scenarios for the path into mid-month, with reads from DeepMMT, the Minsky flow phase model, and margin debt. Members