The archive

Dec 6

12/05/2023 - Market Update

Two scenarios for an S&P stuck under 4600 resistance, with the December 15 options expiration and the seasonal mid-month slowdown in flows as the moving parts. November's strong fiscal flow of funds gets a reading of its own. Members Dec 1

12/01/2023 - Market Update

The rally runs on, and December 15th — tax drain plus options expiration — sits ahead as the inflection to watch. Two scenarios for the path into mid-month, with reads from DeepMMT, the Minsky flow phase model, and margin debt. Members Dec 1

11/28/2023 - Market Update

A subscriber-only market update. No written summary accompanied this edition; the full discussion is reserved for members. Members Nov 21

11/21/2023 - Market Update

The post-CPI rally carries November's strength toward year-end. This update reads the Daily Treasury Statement's November peak, bank flow data, and the DeepMMT model against the seasonal pattern into December OPEX. Members Nov 21

Monthly Outlook - December 2023

The December outlook, built on a new tool that sets seasonal fiscal-flow averages against live data. Also here: the 'failed' Treasury auction reconsidered, the Fed as monopoly price-setter, and the redistributive side of rate hikes. Members Nov 1

Introducing AppliedMMT

The launch note. An alternative read of the economy and markets, rooted in Modern Monetary Theory and the mechanics of money that conventional narratives overlook — the framework everything published here is built on. Free