Modern Macro Technologies
Research · · 5 min read

The Credit Cycle, Government Spending Cuts, and the Macroeconomic Outlook

Government spending is slowing — spending pauses, DOGE cuts, roughly $250 billion in tariff revenue — leaving private credit creation, growing about 3% on a $42.5 trillion base, to carry aggregate demand. Whether it can is the question this piece works through.

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The Only Way Treasury Gets Lower Rates Without the Fed

Bessent wants lower long-term rates without the Fed. The TGA build, the doubled buybacks -- none of it will work, and the one fiscal lever that does is the one nobody in this administration will name. Free

08/27/2026 Market Update: The Bessent Buyback Mirage, and Why Mid-September Is the Brittle Zone

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Addressing the WSJ's Latest MMT Hit Piece

The WSJ blames MMT for the pandemic inflation. Their tax arithmetic is right, their description of MMT isn't, and their causal chain runs backwards. Free