Market Update Preview
The call has been consolidation before a run-up into November, with core support around 7,600. This past week got pretty darn weak — selling into Friday's close brought us right up to that zone — but it hasn't broken, and what I'm seeing is a lot of support exactly where I'd expect it. That level was the ceiling for most of the summer and the launch point back in mid-September. We're now pretty close to where the next leg should take off, with a very important FOMC decision landing Wednesday.
I lay out how I'm playing the week — two concrete approaches depending on your tolerance for volatility — and why I still think fiscal and credit are strong enough to carry us above 7,900 by year-end regardless of what the Fed says. I also explain why the selling in tech is an isolated sector story, not a market story, and what the flows say about where that money is going instead.
A big Discord question this week was gold after another leg down. I walk through a two-layer explanation for why gold has underperformed in a strong economy with a hike-ready Fed, what flips that in 2027, and why gold or cash still beats bonds as the hedge alongside an equity book — including my read on whether the bounce in TLT is a reversal or a head fake. Plus the two data points I'd flag as early concerns, where the credit cycle sits relative to the danger zone, and the Fed-day probabilities. Full breakdown below.
(Note: Below is a full summary of the Market Update Video for 10/25/2026, click here to watch the video update)
