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December 2024 Monthly Outlook
A Santa Claus rally running on year-end flows, set against a dark-pool divergence that has historically preceded sharp corrections. The outlook maps the 2025 scenarios: fiscal cuts, business-cycle acceleration, and bubble-economy risks further out.
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November 2024 Monthly Outlook
The monthly outlook lands the morning after Trump's re-election, covering the post-election rally, the next day's FOMC, the inflation arithmetic of tariffs and immigration limits, and business-cycle projections out to 2026.
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October 2024 Monthly Outlook
Sentiment has run ahead of flows with stocks near all-time highs. Oil's jump from $67 to $80 in a week, still-robust inflation-adjusted deficit spending, and DeepMMT's early signal on the 2025 rate path fill out the month's picture.
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September 2024 Monthly Outlook
The monthly outlook runs the expected Fed cuts through an MMT lens: the average rate on outstanding Treasuries sits below Fed funds, so new issuance adds interest income either way. Plus September tax drains, fiscal flows, and the wage and oil tells.
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Monthly Outlook - December 2023
The December outlook, built on a new tool that sets seasonal fiscal-flow averages against live data. Also here: the 'failed' Treasury auction reconsidered, the Fed as monopoly price-setter, and the redistributive side of rate hikes.
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