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Forecasting GDP is a Tough Science
The Atlanta Fed's nowcast reads 3.3%, the New York Fed's 1.8%, DeepMMT 2's 2.65% — until a day later, when it jumps to 3.1%. On the choice to let a continuous-time model run rather than adjust it to expectations.
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Strategic Guide: Portfolio Construction
A working guide to the two DeepMMT 2 quadrant forecasts — inflation against GDP, and inflation against equity returns — and how to turn them into portfolio positioning, from hierarchical risk parity weights to scaling equity exposure.
DeepMMT 2 Inflation Forecast: Hot then Drop
The DeepMMT 2 model reads October's 2.6% CPI as the front end of a hot-then-drop path: elevated prints through December, modest relief in early 2025, with the Fed's November cut and a probable December follow-on factored in.
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November 2024 Monthly Outlook
The monthly outlook lands the morning after Trump's re-election, covering the post-election rally, the next day's FOMC, the inflation arithmetic of tariffs and immigration limits, and business-cycle projections out to 2026.
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09/05/2024 Market Update
Volatility is back and the gap between price and flows is widening into the mid-September tax drain; tomorrow's jobs report matters mostly for average hourly earnings and the next phase of inflation.
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September 2024 Monthly Outlook
The monthly outlook runs the expected Fed cuts through an MMT lens: the average rate on outstanding Treasuries sits below Fed funds, so new issuance adds interest income either way. Plus September tax drains, fiscal flows, and the wage and oil tells.
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08/21/2024 Market Update
The rebound from early August's selling has the S&P within 1% of all-time highs. On the gap between price and flows, the 5700-5750 resistance zone, Jackson Hole, and the September data calendar.
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08/13/2024 Market Update
The S&P rallies hard while the market splits between 25 and 50 basis points for September. The update reads volatility compression against the 2018 pattern, August flows, the Monthly Treasury Statement, margin debt, and bank credit.
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08/06/2024 Market Update
Monday's near-5% plunge in the S&P 500 followed the unwind of the yen carry trade. The update sets the episode against early 2018, then takes stock of the credit cycle and a three-variable read on recession risk — private debt, deficits, and credit change.
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08/02/2024 Market Update
Stocks down about 2.5% on a payrolls miss, with one of the biggest VIX surges since February 2023. The update works through the vol shift model, sentiment-flow alignment, late-summer fiscal seasonality, and August options expiration.
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07/11/2024 Market Update
The first deep red day in months: S&P down nearly 1%, Nasdaq over 2%. On the docket are September cut odds near 90%, the June Treasury statement, sentiment at bullish extremes, the gamma picture, and the Deep MMT model's latest reading.
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07/02/2024 Market Update
Two weeks of sideways tape while 90-day fiscal flows bottom into July. Also covered: a June surplus, stronger-than-expected corporate tax receipts, gamma positioning, the dark pool divergence, and the September rate-cut odds.
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