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06/26/2024 Market Update
Post-OPEX positioning, a falling 90-day flow average, the prospect of a June fiscal surplus month, gamma and dark-pool readings, and GDP and PCE data due at week's end.
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06/18/2024 Market Update
New all-time highs against stretched sentiment. The update walks the June inflection points — the corporate tax drain, options expiration, dealer gamma — and introduces DeepMMT's new probability cone for price paths.
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06/11/2024 Market Update
On the handoff from fiscal acceleration to credit expansion, with the mid-June corporate tax drain, the June 21 options expiration, dark-pool divergence, and the 5400 level all in view ahead of Wednesday's FOMC and CPI.
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06/02/2024 Market Update
GDP lands on expectations as deficit spending settles. The update takes up the reaccelerating bank-credit cycle, oil and inflation risk, the mid-June corporate tax drain, June 21 OpEx as an inflection point, and the week's JOLTS and jobs data.
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05/23/2024 Market Update
Stocks sell off in the post-expiration window after a month of volatility compression. Covered: dealer hedging levels, the June tax drain ahead, accelerating bank credit, and oil's place in the inflation picture.
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05/17/2024 Market Update
Wednesday's cooler CPI print, fiscal flows building into late May, where the credit cycle stands, and the June and September tax-drain windows ahead.
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05/02/2024 Market Update
A post-FOMC session on the April tax drain and its aftermath, the turn in market flows now that tax season has passed, gamma positioning and sentiment, oil's role in the inflation picture, and the employment data ahead.
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04/19/2024 Market Update
An overnight 2% selloff on Israel's retaliation against Iran drops the S&P into the 4900s; the update walks through VIX Bollinger closes, dark pool activity, the volatility-shift model, and the question of when flows return.
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04/17/2024 Market Update
The sharpest pullback since late 2023 arrives in the middle of tax-drain season. The update reads it through RSI momentum extremes, dealer hedging data, and the historical pattern of May lagging while tax payments drain flows.
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04/11/2024 Market Update
CPI comes in hot and selling pressure reaches a five-month high. The update covers dealer hedging around 5200, the April options expiration, and the fiscal-versus-credit picture in the Monthly Treasury Statement.
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CPI Comes in Hot, Rate Cuts in Doubt
March CPI prints 3.8% against a 3.7% forecast and rate-cut odds fade. The post walks through why, in this framework, higher rates feed the fiscal-and-credit growth cycle rather than cool it.
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04/03/2024 Market Update
Sentiment and momentum at extremes as tax season approaches. On the table: dealer hedging levels, the scale of the April tax drain, oil's climb, and what a strong employment report would mean for the Fed's path.
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