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03/28/2024 Market Update
Forty-four years of average daily S&P returns frame the seasonal flow picture, alongside deficit spending trends, bank credit, sentiment and dark pool extremes, and the approaching April tax drain and options expiration.
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03/21/2024 Market Update
Rates hold and the market hears dovish, with futures snapping toward June cuts; from there, whether cuts would actually stimulate, extreme sentiment against strong flows at the new highs, and the week ahead in GDP and PCE.
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03/13/2024 Market Update
CPI came in hot and the market rallied anyway. Spring 2021's speculative phase is the reference point, alongside bank credit, fiscal flows, the tax-season drain, and the FOMC ahead.
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03/05/2024 Market Update
Volatility models, gamma exposure, and dark pool positioning around the S&P's 5050 support level, with Powell's testimony and the ADP and JOLTS releases directly ahead.
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02/29/2024 Market Update
Gamma exposure weakening under extreme bullish sentiment, DeepMMT's read on current levels, and the strength in bank credit and fiscal flows heading toward April's tax season — plus a new tutorial video for the tools.
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02/22/2024 Market Update
Nvidia's earnings beat sends the S&P and Nasdaq to fresh all-time highs; the update weighs the rally against dealer gamma positioning, a new Flow Sentiment Ratio, and next week's GDP and core PCE prints.
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02/19/2024 Short Term Market Update
A detour from the usual macro cadence into short-term territory: the stall near 5,000, overbought readings on the new Flow Sentiment Tool, and what the dollar, bonds, and oil are signaling heading into options expiration.
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02/13/2024 Market Update
The morning's CPI report came in well above expectations and set off one of the most volatile sessions since fall 2023. The update works through the Fed repricing, the VIX spike, and where fiscal and banking flows sit heading into February OPEX.
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02/05/2024 Market Update
A video-update week built around the Minsky two-cycle frame: fiscal flows and endogenous bank money, Granger-causality tests linking government debt to credit, and the CPI print and February OPEX ahead.
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01/24/2024 Market Update
A reversal off fresh all-time highs at the 4900 level sets the agenda: the gamma build there, the odds of a March hold from the Fed, the gradual recovery in bank credit, and sentiment heading into February.
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01/17/2024 Market Update
Consolidation after the late-2023 run. The video update covers the late-January slowdown in fiscal flows, OpEx week, March rate-cut odds against strong retail sales, the Flow Phase model, and early signs of a bank-credit rebound.
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01/09/2024 Market Update
The Kelton curve on rates and debt-to-GDP, what higher rates mean for bank risk-taking, the Eurodollar system's reach into global credit, and a read of the bank credit data ahead of the March FOMC.
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