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01/03/2024 Market Update
The first update of the year covers the January volatility spike, early signs of a new bank credit cycle, still-strong fiscal flows, a Deep MMT retrain for 2024, and the calendar ahead: January OpEx, then the March FOMC.
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12/27/2023 Market Update
Dealer hedging runs the reverse of late 2022 in this year-end update, alongside the seasonal slowdown in fiscal flows, bullish sentiment at extremes, the dark pool index, and January 19 — the first options expiration of the new year.
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12/20/2023 Market Update
Wednesday's sell-off ends the run that began in early November. The update reads the volatility spike through DeepMMT and the vol-shift model, takes up Ritik Goyal's case that higher rates are stimulative, and maps three paths hinging on a March Fed cut.
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12/18/2023 Market Update
Post-OpEx strength marks an inflection in the rally. The video runs the dashboard — volatility shift, gamma exposure, Minsky flow phase, Deep MMT, the dark pool index — against the Fed's newly signaled 2024 rate cuts, plus oil, bonds, and the dollar.
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12/12/2023 Market Update
An in-line CPI print, the NY Fed's supply-chain index as a leading inflation gauge, fiscal dominance set against a static credit sector, and the December 15 confluence of peak fiscal flows, OPEX, and the Fed's rate decision.
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12/08/2023 Market Update
Payrolls beat again and the S&P holds near 4600, with $1.5 trillion in added interest income over twelve months framing the fiscal picture; gamma positioning, the 12/15 OPEX, gold, and Bitcoin round it out.
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12/05/2023 - Market Update
Two scenarios for an S&P stuck under 4600 resistance, with the December 15 options expiration and the seasonal mid-month slowdown in flows as the moving parts. November's strong fiscal flow of funds gets a reading of its own.
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12/01/2023 - Market Update
The rally runs on, and December 15th — tax drain plus options expiration — sits ahead as the inflection to watch. Two scenarios for the path into mid-month, with reads from DeepMMT, the Minsky flow phase model, and margin debt.
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11/28/2023 - Market Update
A subscriber-only market update. No written summary accompanied this edition; the full discussion is reserved for members.
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11/21/2023 - Market Update
The post-CPI rally carries November's strength toward year-end. This update reads the Daily Treasury Statement's November peak, bank flow data, and the DeepMMT model against the seasonal pattern into December OPEX.
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Monthly Outlook - December 2023
The December outlook, built on a new tool that sets seasonal fiscal-flow averages against live data. Also here: the 'failed' Treasury auction reconsidered, the Fed as monopoly price-setter, and the redistributive side of rate hikes.
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Introducing AppliedMMT
The launch note. An alternative read of the economy and markets, rooted in Modern Monetary Theory and the mechanics of money that conventional narratives overlook — the framework everything published here is built on.
Free