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AlphaShift Note - 9/22/2026
Professional
09/16/2026 Market Update: The Fed Hiked. Here's Why It Feeds the Cycle Instead of Ending It.
Market Update Preview
Fed Day delivered a hike. Heading in, this was probably the most uncertain rate decision we've had in many years — exactly
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Macro Update: The cycle is intact, the model is long, and for the next few weeks we are hedging it with cash
Professional
09/07/2026 Market Update: The September Surprise — Flows Just Changed the Setup
Market Update Preview
For the past four or five weeks, the drive-home point here has been sideways action: the big early-August run played out most of
Members
The Only Way Treasury Gets Lower Rates Without the Fed
Bessent wants lower long-term rates without the Fed. The TGA build, the doubled buybacks -- none of it will work, and the one fiscal lever that does is the one nobody in this administration will name.
Free
08/27/2026 Market Update: The Bessent Buyback Mirage, and Why Mid-September Is the Brittle Zone
The Bessent buyback treated as a mirage: the TGA mechanics, the one lever that would actually bring rates down, and why nobody in Washington will pull it. Also flagged — a mid-September brittle zone, and a rare disagreement with DeepMMT.
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08/18/2026 Market Update: Introducing the Flow Monitor, and Why September Is the Date I'm Circling
The Flow Monitor debuts: fiscal flows, credit, and the lag structure condensed into one visual that asks whether the market is priced to the dollars already created. Also: new highs, the case that overpriced alone doesn't break a market, and a circled September window.
Members
08/09/2026 Market Update: The Rally Delivered. Now Comes the Harder Question.
A run to nearly 7,800 out of the gate in August shifts the question from whether the rally holds to when it gets dangerous; also here, a years-long split between credit creation and tax receipts, and why a too-calm VIX is its own warning.
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07/30/2026 Market Update: The Inflection Point, Reading the New Fed, and Why You Can't Front-Run Flows
A 1,000-point Dow drop after Warsh's press conference, mostly recovered a session later. Two FOMC meetings into the new Fed, the update reads the market's response function, a July 24 shift in the flow picture, and why no one seems to front-run flows.
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07/19/2026 Market Update
Oil back above $80, the semiconductor index off more than 20%, and bearish calls stacking up. The bear case gets steelmanned — chart pattern, sentiment, dark-pool divergence — then taken apart with the fiscal re-acceleration driving flows this late in the cycle.
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07/12/2026 Market Update
Iran tensions nudge oil higher while the S&P sits in its consolidation. The bigger story is fiscal: flows are re-accelerating, the mid-July low is bottoming above April's, and a rates breakout is brewing in the background.
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07/03/2026 Market Update
A 57k jobs print against 129k expected shook markets for a day and changed nothing: flows are re-accelerating into July. The centerpiece is a dollar deep dive on how currency moves change a US portfolio's return against a hedged international one.
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