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Is This the Start of a Bear Market—or Just a Necessary Reset?
Oil's 50% spike is the anxiety, but the MMT arithmetic says the system doesn't strain until inflation nears 6% — which would take crude above $200. At today's 2.5% CPI, this reads as a stretched market resetting, not a cycle ending.
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03/23/2026 Market Update
A Truth Social post on a five-day Iran hiatus sent the S&P up 2% and oil down nearly 10% before most of the move faded. The update weighs the oil risk premium, rising rate expectations, and the tax-drain window against that headline.
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03/16/2026 Market Update
The volatility regime that began in October keeps working itself out. Oil is the swing factor: two weeks past the initial break it has not reset, and elevated crude eats into the real value of fiscal support.
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03/04/2026 Market Update
Equities round-tripped the Iran headlines back to Friday's close; oil didn't, holding roughly 15% higher. The update works through what that gap means for flows, the inflation setup, and the March seasonality window.
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Supreme Court Strikes Down the IEEPA Tariffs — But Markets May Be Staring at Something Worse
The Supreme Court rules the IEEPA tariffs illegal; within hours Trump floats a global 10% tariff, then 15%. Tariffs function as a tax on private-sector balance sheets — which is why the replacement may prove worse than what the Court struck down.
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02/22/2026 Market Update
The Supreme Court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs; a 15% global tariff under Section 122 follows almost immediately. On the refund arithmetic, the fiscal headwind if tariffs re-accelerate, and how futures digested a messy weekend.
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Are We Finally Breaking Out — Or Setting Up for One More Leg Lower?
Five months of sideways market — the S&P up barely 1–1.5%, the Nasdaq slightly down — examined through a three-model flow-sentiment ensemble. The readings say the market hasn't truly reset, leaving one more leg lower on the table.
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CPI Cools… But the Inflation Trade Isn’t Dead
The January print came in below consensus at 2.4%, yet the assets that win in inflationary regimes keep winning: ex-US equities, materials, gold, a falling dollar. In this causal chain, CPI is the expansion's final stage, not its first.
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02/13/2026 Market Update
CPI comes in cooler than consensus even as materials, value, small caps, and gold trade like inflation winners; also inside: the flow-sentiment toolset, dealer hedging, dark pools, and DeepMMT's current read.
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02/06/2026 Market Update
Bitcoin fell roughly 15%, then regained 12% the next day; the S&P swung with it. The update reads the whipsaw against the price-ahead-of-flows regime and the tax-season flow acceleration window.
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01/29/2026 Market Update
Tech earnings put volatility back in the tape. Inside: the trade balance as the tariff bullwhip fades, renewed shutdown risk, gold and dollar dynamics, and what decelerating fiscal beside accelerating credit says about where the cycle stands.
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01/21/2026 Market Update
Volatility arrives: a roughly 2% S&P selloff, a VIX push above its upper Bollinger band, and a January tax drain that left flows at their weakest since 2023. Also covered: Japan carry-trade stress and the bonds-up, dollar-down decoupling.
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