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What’s Driving the Market Selloff? A Deep Dive into Bonds, Yields, and the Fed
The S&P falls 4.5% in five sessions and the press blames the bond market. The mechanics say otherwise: a debt-ceiling supply shortage in Treasuries, spending run out of the TGA, and falling yields that signal scarcity, not a growth scare.
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Trump’s Economic Vision: A European Replay?
Kevin Hassett lays out the administration's plan — expand labor supply, cut aggregate demand — and it reads like post-GFC Europe. That experiment produced stagnation, weak wages, and worse inflation when the supply shock came.
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Tariffs, Growth, and Inflation: What No One is Talking About
Tariffs are a tax: they drain financial assets from the private sector and slow growth unless offset by spending. Whether they're inflationary turns on pass-through — in 2018, firms mostly ate the cost, and margins, not prices, took the hit.
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Trump 2.0: What It Means for Markets and Fiscal Flows
DOGE promises up to $2 trillion in cuts; the arithmetic of non-discretionary spending says $250-500 billion at most. A flow-by-flow accounting of the new administration's fiscal agenda and what it leaves intact for markets.
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Understanding Rising Treasury Yields: Debunking the Macro Bear Narratives
Long-end yields are climbing and the doom chorus is back. Rising growth and inflation expectations explain the move; the debt-crisis and no-demand-for-Treasuries stories don't survive how reserves and issuance actually work.
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CPI Comes in Hot, Rate Cuts in Doubt
March CPI prints 3.8% against a 3.7% forecast and rate-cut odds fade. The post walks through why, in this framework, higher rates feed the fiscal-and-credit growth cycle rather than cool it.
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