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06/02/2024 Market Update
GDP lands on expectations as deficit spending settles. The update takes up the reaccelerating bank-credit cycle, oil and inflation risk, the mid-June corporate tax drain, June 21 OpEx as an inflection point, and the week's JOLTS and jobs data.
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05/17/2024 Market Update
Wednesday's cooler CPI print, fiscal flows building into late May, where the credit cycle stands, and the June and September tax-drain windows ahead.
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05/10/2024 Market Update
Volatility compression, the slow repair of April's tax-drain damage to structural flows, and a week ahead loaded with CPI and a Powell speech — the video update takes stock of each.
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05/02/2024 Market Update
A post-FOMC session on the April tax drain and its aftermath, the turn in market flows now that tax season has passed, gamma positioning and sentiment, oil's role in the inflation picture, and the employment data ahead.
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04/25/2024 Market Update
A surprisingly weak GDP headline knocks the S&P toward 5000 before a midday recovery. The update takes the print apart — core growth ran 3.1% — and weighs what it means for the Fed's rate path and May's post-tax-season flows.
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04/19/2024 Market Update
An overnight 2% selloff on Israel's retaliation against Iran drops the S&P into the 4900s; the update walks through VIX Bollinger closes, dark pool activity, the volatility-shift model, and the question of when flows return.
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04/17/2024 Market Update
The sharpest pullback since late 2023 arrives in the middle of tax-drain season. The update reads it through RSI momentum extremes, dealer hedging data, and the historical pattern of May lagging while tax payments drain flows.
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04/11/2024 Market Update
CPI comes in hot and selling pressure reaches a five-month high. The update covers dealer hedging around 5200, the April options expiration, and the fiscal-versus-credit picture in the Monthly Treasury Statement.
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04/03/2024 Market Update
Sentiment and momentum at extremes as tax season approaches. On the table: dealer hedging levels, the scale of the April tax drain, oil's climb, and what a strong employment report would mean for the Fed's path.
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03/28/2024 Market Update
Forty-four years of average daily S&P returns frame the seasonal flow picture, alongside deficit spending trends, bank credit, sentiment and dark pool extremes, and the approaching April tax drain and options expiration.
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03/21/2024 Market Update
Rates hold and the market hears dovish, with futures snapping toward June cuts; from there, whether cuts would actually stimulate, extreme sentiment against strong flows at the new highs, and the week ahead in GDP and PCE.
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03/13/2024 Market Update
CPI came in hot and the market rallied anyway. Spring 2021's speculative phase is the reference point, alongside bank credit, fiscal flows, the tax-season drain, and the FOMC ahead.
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