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09/12/2024 Market Update
The mid-July consolidation gets read against a 2019 analog, alongside the latest monthly Treasury statement, the seasonal tax-and-OpEx volatility window into October, and the hundred basis points of cuts the market has priced ahead of the FOMC.
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09/05/2024 Market Update
Volatility is back and the gap between price and flows is widening into the mid-September tax drain; tomorrow's jobs report matters mostly for average hourly earnings and the next phase of inflation.
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08/29/2024 Market Update
Sideways chop after the August selloff. The update takes up the late-summer spending surge and its shortfall against 2023, the widening gap between flows and price, and what the September tax drain sets up for October.
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08/21/2024 Market Update
The rebound from early August's selling has the S&P within 1% of all-time highs. On the gap between price and flows, the 5700-5750 resistance zone, Jackson Hole, and the September data calendar.
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08/13/2024 Market Update
The S&P rallies hard while the market splits between 25 and 50 basis points for September. The update reads volatility compression against the 2018 pattern, August flows, the Monthly Treasury Statement, margin debt, and bank credit.
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08/06/2024 Market Update
Monday's near-5% plunge in the S&P 500 followed the unwind of the yen carry trade. The update sets the episode against early 2018, then takes stock of the credit cycle and a three-variable read on recession risk — private debt, deficits, and credit change.
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08/02/2024 Market Update
Stocks down about 2.5% on a payrolls miss, with one of the biggest VIX surges since February 2023. The update works through the vol shift model, sentiment-flow alignment, late-summer fiscal seasonality, and August options expiration.
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07/18/2024 Market Update
Two days of heavier selling frame this session: sentiment stretched against flows, the post-expiration gamma setup, dark-pool participation, July's fiscal-flow low, and accelerating bank credit, with a data run into the July 31 FOMC.
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07/11/2024 Market Update
The first deep red day in months: S&P down nearly 1%, Nasdaq over 2%. On the docket are September cut odds near 90%, the June Treasury statement, sentiment at bullish extremes, the gamma picture, and the Deep MMT model's latest reading.
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07/02/2024 Market Update
Two weeks of sideways tape while 90-day fiscal flows bottom into July. Also covered: a June surplus, stronger-than-expected corporate tax receipts, gamma positioning, the dark pool divergence, and the September rate-cut odds.
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06/26/2024 Market Update
Post-OPEX positioning, a falling 90-day flow average, the prospect of a June fiscal surplus month, gamma and dark-pool readings, and GDP and PCE data due at week's end.
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06/18/2024 Market Update
New all-time highs against stretched sentiment. The update walks the June inflection points — the corporate tax drain, options expiration, dealer gamma — and introduces DeepMMT's new probability cone for price paths.
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