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01/02/2025 Market Update
Sideways since September with drawdowns under 5%. December's flow dip, the bond market's repricing after the December FOMC, and the loans-and-leases data feeding the 2025 growth outlook.
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12/23/2024 Market Update
Markets claw back half of the post-FOMC selloff after the Fed's quarter-point cut and shift to data dependence. Also in view: dealer repositioning, a dark-pool reset, December's fading tax drain, and the stopgap spending bill.
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12/12/2024 Market Update
The S&P keeps climbing through one of the longest price-flow divergences since the pre-COVID era; the update weighs the parallel to late 2017's run into Volmageddon, the December FOMC, and core inflation stuck above 3%.
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12/02/2024 Market Update
With the S&P at fresh all-time highs into December, the update covers sticky Core PCE inflation, the 75 basis points of Fed cuts markets have priced, dark-pool divergences, and a data week ending in the November jobs report.
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11/20/2024 Market Update
The post-election rally has largely round-tripped, and attention turns to the incoming administration's fiscal agenda: proposed spending cuts on an Argentina-like scale, tax-cut offsets, and the speculative-lending risk that comes with deregulation.
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11/12/2024 Market Update
A week of post-election rally, the incoming administration's designs on spending and the Fed, simulations on immigration and the labor force, bonds, the dollar, sub-$70 oil, and gamma stacked around 6,000 into expiration.
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11/04/2024 Market Update
Election night and an FOMC decision fall in the same week. The update takes up post-event dealer repositioning, Friday's weak payroll report, and what sustained deficit-driven flows imply for the fourth quarter.
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10/29/2024 Market Update
Volatility sits compressed a week out from the election. Also covered: a JOLTS miss, modest bank credit against flat loans and leases, the unwind risk around pre-election hedging, and GDP and unemployment releases on deck.
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10/21/2024 Market Update
Post-opex, with dealer hedging reset, the update relaunches the Flow Phase model in three phases instead of four and previews MESSSi, the endogenous macro simulator built with Ty Keynes, alongside fresh Treasury flow data.
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10/11/2024 Market Update
An inflation print that beat expectations, and what it implies about where the business cycle stands. Also covered: the S&P's breakout, the Fed's procyclical rate behavior, oil, and the deficit path into 2025.
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10/04/2024 Market Update
A sideways week ends with a late rally and a strong payroll surprise. Wage pressure is building; the update covers next week's CPI as a potential inflection point and the long end of the bond market repricing the Fed's cutting plans.
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09/20/2024 Market Update
A 50 basis point cut, a pop-drop-pop into new highs, a wage-inflation divergence surfacing in the payroll data, the September 16 tax drawdown, and the October 4 jobs report as the next tell on wages.
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