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04/29/2025 Market Update
Markets test the 5500 zone that has capped them since the early-April selloff. The bear case of tariffs, retrenchment, and wavering confidence is weighed against surging loan growth, April's roughly $12 billion tariff take, and the data due next.
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04/23/2025 Market Update
Overnight futures jumped more than 3% on softer tariff talk, then gave most of it back. The update covers the contested 5,500 zone, stable government spending data, tariff receipts showing up in Treasury deposits, and the budget talks ahead.
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04/14/2025 Market Update
Tariffs paused for 90 days and stocks up about 12.5% from the lows. Covered: the debt-ceiling timeline, April tax receipts and bank reserves, and two competing readings of falling bonds and a weaker dollar.
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04/06/2025 Market Update
Markets shed roughly 10% in three days. The update separates the mechanics — tariff front-running, debt-ceiling plumbing and the TGA, delayed repatriation of foreign dollars — from what bank credit and jobs data actually show.
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03/31/2025 Market Update
This session traces the debt-ceiling impasse through the banking system — undrained reserves, regulatory capital limits, the reverse-repo backstop — alongside April's tax drain into the TGA and the week's jobs data.
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03/24/2025 Market Update
A sharp Monday rally after weeks of March selling. The update walks through negative-gamma mechanics post-OpEx, DeepMMT's divergence from price, the Minsky flow-phase model's first Phase 2 reading in two years, and the week's GDP and PCE prints.
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02/27/2025 Market Update
With the S&P 500 down 4% from its peak and sentiment at multi-year bearish extremes, this update sorts through tariff and budget uncertainty, the drop in long-bond yields, negative-gamma dealer hedging, and the Fed balance-sheet debate.
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02/21/2025 Market Update
The S&P sits just under resistance at 6,100 after fresh highs. Inside: a weak consumer-sentiment print against firm credit data, the daily spending tracker's read on whether cuts have materialized, and accelerating bank lending.
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02/11/2025 Market Update
Consolidation below 6,100 with hedged, defensive positioning underneath. The update weighs deficit spending running about $25 billion under last year's cumulative pace against a credit cycle that needs roughly three percent loan growth to hold up demand.
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01/28/2025 Market Update
The DeepSeek selloff and the rebound that followed, the OMB funding-freeze drama, DOGE's spending review, and what a slowing fiscal engine means for a market that would have to run on private credit — with the dotcom-era parallel in view.
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01/20/2025 Market Update
An inauguration-week read: what Trump's speech did and didn't say on tariffs and spending, plus fiscal flows, bank credit, interest income, and the setup into February's options expiration and the April tax season.
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01/11/2025 Market Update
After a week of heavy selling, the video update works through the volatility setup, the fiscal flow sentiment ratio, dark pool activity, the January 17 options expiration, and where oil, Bitcoin, and gold sit ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
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