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09/24/2025 Market Update
Back-to-back down days end weeks of volatility compression just as the corporate tax window pulls roughly $100B from the system. The update walks through the flow and sentiment tools, dark pool divergence, DeepMMT's path, and the credit-versus-fiscal ledger.
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09/08/2025 Market Update
One of the weakest payrolls prints in years, the Supreme Court tariff case and its potential $150 billion-plus refund, gold's surge, a sagging dollar, and emerging markets — with CPI due Thursday.
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09/01/2025 Market Update
A Labor Day read on a compressed tape: the appeals-court tariff ruling now headed toward the Supreme Court, fiscal's role in the credit cycle, VIX at its lowest since late 2024, and the September corporate tax drain ahead.
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08/25/2025 Market Update
After Powell signaled cuts at Jackson Hole, this update works the arithmetic of a 25bps cut across $7.5 trillion of adjustable-rate private debt, the late-summer surge in flows, the September tax drain a few weeks out, and fall seasonality.
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08/04/2025 Market Update
After the jobs-report sell-off, the update examines whether the labor miss reflects a supply shock or firings, softness in corporate tax receipts, the rate-cut outlook, and the phases of the cycle framework from fiscal surprise onward.
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07/28/2025 Market Update
The macro theme this week is the handoff from fiscal-driven to credit-driven growth: tariffs acting as a tax, tax-receipt growth decelerating, and the early anatomy of the first credit bubble in fifteen years.
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07/02/2025 Market Update
The Big Beautiful Bill against the CBO's $2.4 trillion score, two simulations of the tax cuts, a roughly $5 trillion debt-ceiling raise and the Treasury issuance to follow, and the proposed SLR cut from 5% to 3.5%.
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06/25/2025 Market Update
The Nasdaq hits all-time highs on Nvidia earnings while fiscal flows weaken into the corporate tax drain; the update weighs two explanations for the falling dollar, including Mosler's export-import reversal.
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06/05/2025 Market Update
The rally off April's tariff selloff approaches a pivot point, with the June tax drain ahead, bank credit accelerating, the bond market and dollar sliding, and a jobs report and CPI print due to weigh in.
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05/28/2025 Market Update
The weekly tape takes a back seat to the cycle question, run through the Minsky framework: the CBO's $3.5-4 trillion score on the One Big Beautiful Bill, the trade war's imprint on the dollar, and what the credit data says about the remaining runway.
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05/20/2025 Market Update
With the S&P inside four percent of its February highs, attention turns to mid-to-late-cycle dynamics: credit-driven growth, eurozone equities outperforming, a sliding dollar, oil still under $70, and the deficit path of the budget bill under negotiation.
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05/09/2025 Market Update
The recovery off April's low grinds on. On the docket: what tariff front-running did to inventories, hiring, and the inflation path in simulation, fiscal and credit flows, and the budget announcements due by early June.
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