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07/03/2026 Market Update
A 57k jobs print against 129k expected shook markets for a day and changed nothing: flows are re-accelerating into July. The centerpiece is a dollar deep dive on how currency moves change a US portfolio's return against a hedged international one.
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03/23/2026 Market Update
A Truth Social post on a five-day Iran hiatus sent the S&P up 2% and oil down nearly 10% before most of the move faded. The update weighs the oil risk premium, rising rate expectations, and the tax-drain window against that headline.
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03/16/2026 Market Update
The volatility regime that began in October keeps working itself out. Oil is the swing factor: two weeks past the initial break it has not reset, and elevated crude eats into the real value of fiscal support.
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03/04/2026 Market Update
Equities round-tripped the Iran headlines back to Friday's close; oil didn't, holding roughly 15% higher. The update works through what that gap means for flows, the inflation setup, and the March seasonality window.
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02/22/2026 Market Update
The Supreme Court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs; a 15% global tariff under Section 122 follows almost immediately. On the refund arithmetic, the fiscal headwind if tariffs re-accelerate, and how futures digested a messy weekend.
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02/13/2026 Market Update
CPI comes in cooler than consensus even as materials, value, small caps, and gold trade like inflation winners; also inside: the flow-sentiment toolset, dealer hedging, dark pools, and DeepMMT's current read.
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12/30/2025 Market Update
Part data, part narrative: the GDP beat's trade-math mechanics, the sliding dollar, gold and silver's late-cycle run, and inflation moving toward center stage as 2026 arrives.
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12/17/2025 Market Update
Two-plus months of sideways price meet the December tax drain: the 90-day flow average peaked near $9B a day against $10.1B last December. The update covers the vol shift model's early warnings, deteriorating dealer hedging, and a CPI-and-speeches week ahead.
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12/08/2025 Market Update
A quiet tape into a Fed cut that's all but priced. Covered here: the year-end flow lift against a decelerating fiscal trend, the interest-income mechanics of a cutting cycle, and a tariff-refund wildcard worth $200-250 billion to the private sector.
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11/29/2025 Market Update
Flows never re-accelerated after the September tax drain, and the snapback gets measured against that fact — alongside a coming Fed cut read through the rate-income lens, and what a tariff overturn or refund would hand back to the private sector.
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11/18/2025 Market Update
Follow-through selling at last, with every bounce meeting heavier supply. Under review: the fading fiscal impulse against shutdown and tariff drags, dealer positioning and dark pools, a still-accelerating credit engine, and both models' updated readings.
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11/02/2025 Market Update
An anatomy of gold's run — interest income, the dollar's global role, the tariff regime — then equities near highs as fiscal flows slow, passive's nonlinear bid, still-accelerating bank credit, and the SCOTUS tariff case as the binary that matters.
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