Follow the flows.
We turn fiscal flows, Federal Reserve and Treasury operations, and balance-sheet mechanics into research and tools you can act on.
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Circulation
- 896 members
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Three kinds of work, one framework
Market updates
Reads on Treasury statements, tax receipts, refunding, and what the flows imply for positioning. At least once a week.
Deep dives & strategy
Full research pieces behind the models — position-level detail, scenario work, and the spreadsheets we actually use.
Dashboards & tools
Live views of the plumbing: Treasury flows, tax receipts, margin debt, and the DeepMinsky market simulation.
Recent work
08/18/2026 Market Update: Introducing the Flow Monitor, and Why September Is the Date I'm Circling
Market Update Preview Two things this week. First, some housekeeping — Modern Macro Tech and AppliedMMT are now one brand on one site, with everything continuing exactly MembersTwo Centuries of Warning About the National Debt
A chronological gallery of 240 years of debt-doom warnings as they were actually printed and broadcast — every quotation verified against primary sources, placed on the debt curve itself. Free08/09/2026 Market Update: The Rally Delivered. Now Comes the Harder Question.
(Note: Below is a summary of the Market Update Video for 08/09/2026, click here to watch the video update) Market Update Preview August opened Members07/30/2026 Market Update: The Inflection Point, Reading the New Fed, and Why You Can't Front-Run Flows
Market Update Preview Yesterday's sell-off was fierce, the Dow shed over 1,000 points following the Fed decision and Warsh's press conference, Members07/19/2026 Market Update
Market Update Preview The bearish calls are stacking up — Iran escalating, oil back above $80, and the semiconductor index down over 20% from its highs. So Members07/12/2026 Market Update
Market Update Preview We've gotten a little of everything since the last update — a pre-holiday pullback, a rebound, and fresh Iran tensions over the Members“We trade the plumbing, not the politics.”
Flows before surveys
Fiscal flows and Federal Reserve and Treasury operations print daily and lead the cycle. We read them before the soft data catches up.
Balance-sheet mechanics
Who is issuing, who has to absorb it, and what that does to reserves, rates, and risk appetite. Operations, not opinions.
No politics
Our framework is descriptive, not ideological. We don’t care what the deficit should be — only what it is, and where it lands.
“25 years ago I would have been looking to work for you!”
Dashboards that watch the plumbing for you
Two ways in
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