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09/30/2025 Market Update
Shutdown risk, a widening SOFR–RRP funding spread, and a roughly $120B September corporate tax drain all land as October's fragile seasonal window opens — with November's Supreme Court tariff ruling waiting behind it.
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09/24/2025 Market Update
Back-to-back down days end weeks of volatility compression just as the corporate tax window pulls roughly $100B from the system. The update walks through the flow and sentiment tools, dark pool divergence, DeepMMT's path, and the credit-versus-fiscal ledger.
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What Really Drives the Price of Bitcoin? Debunking the Liquidity Myth
The Fed-liquidity story for Bitcoin doesn't survive contact with the data: QE swaps assets rather than creating them, fiscal flows do the creating, and price follows them with a roughly ten-month lag.
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09/15/2025 Market Update
Introduces Fiscal Flow Acceleration, a new tool built on the Daily Treasury Statement, then turns to September seasonality, the corporate tax drain, Wednesday's Fed decision, and the Supreme Court tariff case with a $150B refund riding on it.
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Jobs Data, Supply Shocks, and Where We Really Are in the Cycle
Payrolls land at 22,000 against a 75,000 expectation. The case that this is a post-supply-shock hiring pause, not a cycle rolling over: credit drawdown is accelerating, inflation is falling, and layoffs are not spiking.
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09/08/2025 Market Update
One of the weakest payrolls prints in years, the Supreme Court tariff case and its potential $150 billion-plus refund, gold's surge, a sagging dollar, and emerging markets — with CPI due Thursday.
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09/01/2025 Market Update
A Labor Day read on a compressed tape: the appeals-court tariff ruling now headed toward the Supreme Court, fiscal's role in the credit cycle, VIX at its lowest since late 2024, and the September corporate tax drain ahead.
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08/25/2025 Market Update
After Powell signaled cuts at Jackson Hole, this update works the arithmetic of a 25bps cut across $7.5 trillion of adjustable-rate private debt, the late-summer surge in flows, the September tax drain a few weeks out, and fall seasonality.
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08/13/2025 Market Update
New all-time highs less than two weeks after the sell-off, and a cooler July inflation print. The bulk of the update is arithmetic: public versus private debt growth across 2024 and 2025, the profit-investment curve, and what multiple rate cuts would do to both.
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08/04/2025 Market Update
After the jobs-report sell-off, the update examines whether the labor miss reflects a supply shock or firings, softness in corporate tax receipts, the rate-cut outlook, and the phases of the cycle framework from fiscal surprise onward.
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07/28/2025 Market Update
The macro theme this week is the handoff from fiscal-driven to credit-driven growth: tariffs acting as a tax, tax-receipt growth decelerating, and the early anatomy of the first credit bubble in fifteen years.
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07/15/2025 Market Update
A deeper-than-usual June tax drain meets the fastest credit expansion since late 2023. Covered: the 0.3% CPI uptick, real fiscal flows under rising tariffs, dealer hedging into this week's OpEx, and the flow-phase model's mid-cycle read.
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