Skip to content
07/02/2025 Market Update
The Big Beautiful Bill against the CBO's $2.4 trillion score, two simulations of the tax cuts, a roughly $5 trillion debt-ceiling raise and the Treasury issuance to follow, and the proposed SLR cut from 5% to 3.5%.
Members
06/25/2025 Market Update
The Nasdaq hits all-time highs on Nvidia earnings while fiscal flows weaken into the corporate tax drain; the update weighs two explanations for the falling dollar, including Mosler's export-import reversal.
Members
06/16/2025 Market Update
Israel's strike on Iran and oil's break above $70, the surge in lending to non-depository financial institutions and the debate over what it signals, the June tax drain, and the weakening dollar as an inflation channel.
Members
06/05/2025 Market Update
The rally off April's tariff selloff approaches a pivot point, with the June tax drain ahead, bank credit accelerating, the bond market and dollar sliding, and a jobs report and CPI print due to weigh in.
Members
05/28/2025 Market Update
The weekly tape takes a back seat to the cycle question, run through the Minsky framework: the CBO's $3.5-4 trillion score on the One Big Beautiful Bill, the trade war's imprint on the dollar, and what the credit data says about the remaining runway.
Members
05/20/2025 Market Update
With the S&P inside four percent of its February highs, attention turns to mid-to-late-cycle dynamics: credit-driven growth, eurozone equities outperforming, a sliding dollar, oil still under $70, and the deficit path of the budget bill under negotiation.
Members
05/09/2025 Market Update
The recovery off April's low grinds on. On the docket: what tariff front-running did to inventories, hiring, and the inflation path in simulation, fiscal and credit flows, and the budget announcements due by early June.
Members
04/29/2025 Market Update
Markets test the 5500 zone that has capped them since the early-April selloff. The bear case of tariffs, retrenchment, and wavering confidence is weighed against surging loan growth, April's roughly $12 billion tariff take, and the data due next.
Members
04/23/2025 Market Update
Overnight futures jumped more than 3% on softer tariff talk, then gave most of it back. The update covers the contested 5,500 zone, stable government spending data, tariff receipts showing up in Treasury deposits, and the budget talks ahead.
Members
04/14/2025 Market Update
Tariffs paused for 90 days and stocks up about 12.5% from the lows. Covered: the debt-ceiling timeline, April tax receipts and bank reserves, and two competing readings of falling bonds and a weaker dollar.
Members
04/06/2025 Market Update
Markets shed roughly 10% in three days. The update separates the mechanics — tariff front-running, debt-ceiling plumbing and the TGA, delayed repatriation of foreign dollars — from what bank credit and jobs data actually show.
Members
03/31/2025 Market Update
This session traces the debt-ceiling impasse through the banking system — undrained reserves, regulatory capital limits, the reverse-repo backstop — alongside April's tax drain into the TGA and the week's jobs data.
Members