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03/24/2025 Market Update
A sharp Monday rally after weeks of March selling. The update walks through negative-gamma mechanics post-OpEx, DeepMMT's divergence from price, the Minsky flow-phase model's first Phase 2 reading in two years, and the week's GDP and PCE prints.
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03/13/2025 Market Update
Ten percent off the February high with none of the usual volatility spike. The update works through the case for a negative-gamma feedback loop, the debt-ceiling clog in Treasury issuance, and macro data — gold, the dollar, European equities — pointing the other way.
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03/04/2025 Market Update
A midweek note on the tariff-driven selloff: dealer hedging in a negative-gamma tape, fiscal flows and near-4% loan growth set against bearish sentiment at 2022 extremes with the market roughly 5% off its highs.
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Strategic Macro & Market Outlook: DeepMMT 2, Growth, and the Case for European & Emerging Markets
A review of DeepMMT 2's forecasts against realized returns, a skeptical read of the GDPNow collapse as tariff front-running, and the framework behind a developing thesis on European and emerging-market equities versus the SPY.
What’s Driving the Market Selloff? A Deep Dive into Bonds, Yields, and the Fed
The S&P falls 4.5% in five sessions and the press blames the bond market. The mechanics say otherwise: a debt-ceiling supply shortage in Treasuries, spending run out of the TGA, and falling yields that signal scarcity, not a growth scare.
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02/27/2025 Market Update
With the S&P 500 down 4% from its peak and sentiment at multi-year bearish extremes, this update sorts through tariff and budget uncertainty, the drop in long-bond yields, negative-gamma dealer hedging, and the Fed balance-sheet debate.
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02/21/2025 Market Update
The S&P sits just under resistance at 6,100 after fresh highs. Inside: a weak consumer-sentiment print against firm credit data, the daily spending tracker's read on whether cuts have materialized, and accelerating bank lending.
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Today's CPI Print: A Bullish Signal for the Endogenous Credit Cycle
CPI lands at 3% against a 2.9% consensus. Using the Kalecki price equation, the piece splits the print into markups, wages, and productivity to read where the endogenous credit cycle stands.
Trump’s Economic Vision: A European Replay?
Kevin Hassett lays out the administration's plan — expand labor supply, cut aggregate demand — and it reads like post-GFC Europe. That experiment produced stagnation, weak wages, and worse inflation when the supply shock came.
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02/11/2025 Market Update
Consolidation below 6,100 with hedged, defensive positioning underneath. The update weighs deficit spending running about $25 billion under last year's cumulative pace against a credit cycle that needs roughly three percent loan growth to hold up demand.
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02/05/2025 Market Update
The video update works through the S&P's stalled test of 6,100, what the debt-ceiling issuance freeze and TGA measures are doing to yields, and simulation runs that model tariffs as a direct tax on importers.
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Tariffs, Growth, and Inflation: What No One is Talking About
Tariffs are a tax: they drain financial assets from the private sector and slow growth unless offset by spending. Whether they're inflationary turns on pass-through — in 2018, firms mostly ate the cost, and margins, not prices, took the hit.
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