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The Credit Cycle, Government Spending Cuts, and the Macroeconomic Outlook
Government spending is slowing — spending pauses, DOGE cuts, roughly $250 billion in tariff revenue — leaving private credit creation, growing about 3% on a $42.5 trillion base, to carry aggregate demand. Whether it can is the question this piece works through.
01/28/2025 Market Update
The DeepSeek selloff and the rebound that followed, the OMB funding-freeze drama, DOGE's spending review, and what a slowing fiscal engine means for a market that would have to run on private credit — with the dotcom-era parallel in view.
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The Trump Administration’s First Moves: Credit Cycle to Credit Bubble?
Week one of the Trump administration puts an estimated $250-500 billion of spending cuts in motion. When deficits decelerate, growth leans on private credit creation - the classic bubble setup, with private debt near 145-155% of GDP.
Trump 2.0: What It Means for Markets and Fiscal Flows
DOGE promises up to $2 trillion in cuts; the arithmetic of non-discretionary spending says $250-500 billion at most. A flow-by-flow accounting of the new administration's fiscal agenda and what it leaves intact for markets.
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01/20/2025 Market Update
An inauguration-week read: what Trump's speech did and didn't say on tariffs and spending, plus fiscal flows, bank credit, interest income, and the setup into February's options expiration and the April tax season.
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Understanding Rising Treasury Yields: Debunking the Macro Bear Narratives
Long-end yields are climbing and the doom chorus is back. Rising growth and inflation expectations explain the move; the debt-crisis and no-demand-for-Treasuries stories don't survive how reserves and issuance actually work.
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Inflection Point for Yields - Inflation & Employment
The long end has risen sharply while markets pare back rate-cut expectations. An MMT reading of the move: rate hikes as interest-income injections, the labor-market feedback loop, and the transition from Quad 4 to Quad 3.
01/11/2025 Market Update
After a week of heavy selling, the video update works through the volatility setup, the fiscal flow sentiment ratio, dark pool activity, the January 17 options expiration, and where oil, Bitcoin, and gold sit ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
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Introducing DeepMMT 2: Total Market Equity Return Forecast
DeepMMT 2 gains a Total Market Equity Return Forecast module: a system-dynamics simulator that treats the private sector as one balance sheet and projects year-over-year equity returns, with a validation run seeded at end-2020 and its limitations stated plainly.
01/02/2025 Market Update
Sideways since September with drawdowns under 5%. December's flow dip, the bond market's repricing after the December FOMC, and the loans-and-leases data feeding the 2025 growth outlook.
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Algorithmic Allocation vs. Dynamic Portfolio Allocation: A Comparative Overview
A side-by-side of two ways to allocate capital: standard optimization on historical prices toward one benchmark portfolio, versus DeepMMT 2's regime approach — separate allocations per macro quadrant, weights shifting as forecasts change.
12/23/2024 Market Update
Markets claw back half of the post-FOMC selloff after the Fed's quarter-point cut and shift to data dependence. Also in view: dealer repositioning, a dark-pool reset, December's fading tax drain, and the stopgap spending bill.
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